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Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets Free NBA Pick

The Northwest’s top team will be at home when the Portland Trail Blazers (45-25) welcome the division rival Denver Nuggets (27-45) to the Moda Center. Action begins at 10:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 28 and can be seen on NBATV, Altitude and CSN-NW.

The Trail Blazers played well in their last game, edging the Jazz 92-89 on Wednesday. Damian Lillard played a pivotal role, recording his fifth double-double of the season with 23 points and 12 assists. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 99-85 loss against the 76ers on Wednesday. Ty Lawson had a team-high 19 points.

The Trail Blazers have emerged victorious in all three games against the Nuggets this year, escaping with a narrow 105-103 victory the last time these teams met. LaMarcus Aldridge put up a double-double in the victory with 39 points and 11 rebounds.

The odds for Portland and Denver are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. The Trail Blazers come into this game 45-25 Straight Up (SU) and 35-34-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 9-3 SU and 5-6-1 ATS against divisional opponents. The Trail Blazers lead the NBA in free throw percentage, shooting an impressive .801 from the free throw line. Turning to the defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Trail Blazers. The 94.5 points that Portland’s defense allows per home game makes them the third-ranked defense at home. Portland’s three-point defense can be considered for best in the league, allowing an NBA-low 439 three-pointers (6.3 per game). Teams usually don’t get many offensive rebounds against the Trail Blazers, who average an NBA-best 35.0 defensive rebounds per game. Portland will look to take advantage of the Nuggets and their propensity to foul. Denver has committed the most fouls in the league, averaging 22.8 per game.

Over on the other bench, the Nuggets have a record of 30-39-3 ATS and 27-45 SU. Against fellow division members, Denver has a 5-8 SU and a 3-9-1 ATS record. The Nuggets have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 12.1 per game, third in the league.

With the Trail Blazers’ last win against Denver, their SU record is now 7-3 over the Nuggets in the last 10 games. The Trail Blazers also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers in a single game during this span.

Predictions: SU Winner – POR, ATS Winner – POR

Notes

Portland ranks 10th in points per game with 102.5, while Denver ranks 27th in points allowed with an average of 103.8 given up.

Denver ranks 17th in points allowed per road game (104.7 PPG), while Portland ranks 10th in points per home game with 102.8.

In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Portland Trail Blazers are a stellar 35-8. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Denver Nuggets have a subpar record of 4-26.

At 10-17, the Portland Trail Blazers have a poor record when their opponents score at least 100 points. The Denver Nuggets are 23-19 when they put up triple digits.

The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 104.1 (ranked 22nd). The Trail Blazers rank eighth for their offensive rating of 105.0.

The Denver Nuggets average 99.7 possessions per game and 1.005 points per possession. The Portland Trail Blazers earn fewer possessions with 97.6, but they score more points with 1.050.

Portland is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 50.5% (ranked 10th in the NBA). Denver is an abysmal 3-28 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.

Portland makes an average of 21.9 assists per game (ranked 12th), while Denver makes 21.6 assists per game (ranked 16th).

Portland makes an average of 4.6 blocks per game (ranked 15th). Denver ranks higher in blocks with 4.7 (ranked 13th).

Portland is ranked 16th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Denver ranks 12th in defensive rebounds.

On average, Portland makes 6.5 steals per game. Denver is an abysmal 13-39 when it allows at least 6 steals.

Written by GMS Previews

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