The Minnesota Timberwolves (6-9) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top shooting defense when they clash against the Portland Trail Blazers (10-4) at Target Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – North.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 223 points with Portland opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
The Trail Blazers are hoping to rebound after failing to cover as 2-point underdogs in their 126-117 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game. The game’s total points (243) were well over the projected point total of 223. Los Angeles made good use of their 26 trips to the charity stripe, making 23 of them (88.5 percent). Portland, on the other hand, was 21-23 (91.3 percent). Damian Lillard was Portland’s leading scorer with 31 points on 8-for-23 shooting.
The last time the Timberwolves played, they beat the New Orleans Pelicans, 107-100, despite being 2-point underdogs. The game’s total points (207) were well under the projected point total of 232.5. The Timberwolves made 19 of their 24 free throws (79.2 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (13.0 vs. 15.0). Karl-Anthony Towns led Minnesota in scoring with 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting from the field.
The offense of Minnesota (19th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 106.0) will clash against the stingy defense of Portland (ninth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 104.5). The Trail Blazers should have the edge on that side of the ball. Furthermore, the Trail Blazers are among the league’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.7 percent). The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rank 30th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.9 percent).
Portland heads into the contest with records of 10-4 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS). It’s tough to find a trend for Trail Blazers games in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 6-9 SU and 7-8 ATS. Of the Timberwolves’ 15 games, 9 have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jusuf Nurkic (15.8 points, 12.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks) has been great for the Trail Blazers while Towns (24.0 points, 13.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Timberwolves.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Nurkic recorded 19 points and 12 rebounds and the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves 111-81, covering as 6-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 192 points, which was 36 points below the projected point total of 228 points. The Trail Blazers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.5 vs. 21.0) and had a much better free throw rate (0.326 vs. 0.172).
Trail Blazers at Timberwolves Odds Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Portland is 3-2 ATS on the road with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS at home with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Minnesota is 1-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Portland is 4-0.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Timberwolves are 6-6 and the Trail Blazers are 10-4.
Portland averages 51.8 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 27th in rebounds allowed per game (49.2).
The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (9.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (6.0).
Portland ranks sixth in assists allowed per game (22.3) while Minnesota ranks 26th (25.9).
The Trail Blazers average 14.0 second chance points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (17.5).
Minnesota ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.9) while Portland ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (6.1).
The Timberwolves rank fifth in fast break points per game (17.1) while the Trail Blazers rank 19th (11.6).
Portland ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Minnesota ranks 15th (16.9).
The Trail Blazers rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (32.1) while the Timberwolves rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
Portland averages 45.4 points in the paint per game, which ranks 21st in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.7).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Portland is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.6, up from 8.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (2.6 below their season average).
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