We are, as of this writing, about two and a half months away from the NFL Draft and this is the perfect time for everyone involved in scouting across the NFL and the media to lose their minds. I seem to be the only NFL writer on the planet immune to such silliness and I consistently prove it every single year, but never did that case get made more emphatically than the 2016 NFL Draft.
Through two quarterback ranking and scouting processes, my choice for the No. 1 quarterback was clear and definitive. It was Dak Prescott. If you weren’t a reader last year, you can be forgiven for missing out on my analysis, but you can read them here and here.
"Big, physical players will be passed over for smaller/faster options"@MoveTheSticks on impact of #SB51:https://t.co/2yPuc6LbMD #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/EuAY7JAmDk
— NFL Draft (@NFLDraft) February 12, 2017
Who was my top pick in 2015? Marcus Mariota. 2014? Teddy Bridgewater and that is the one I’m actually least proud of. Yes, Bridgewater looked like the best of the bunch early, but Derek Carr has probably passed him up. Like everybody else, I held Derek’s brother David’s NFL career against him. I let my imagination get in the way of my eyes. And really that’s the recurring problem in draft analysis at the quarterback position. Scouts want to look at measurables and drills, but they ignore everything they actually see in live NCAA football games. I do not.
And for the record, in 2013 I didn’t like any quarterback at all, but had Geno Smith as my top rated passer. For whatever that was worth. It was an ass year for QBs.
But this year, there are actually a few guys to get excited about and two, pro-ready prospects you can start on Day One. Needless to say, those guys are Nos. 1 and 2 and you’ll have to wait until the final article to find out who they are.
Multiple #RB projected to go in the first round #NFL #nfldraft– but should they? pic.twitter.com/ow3MESWMt0
— NFL Talking Heads (@NFLTalkingHeads) February 13, 2017
My system to determine the best guy really isn’t a system at all. There are a lot of judgement calls in it, but the thing I look for most is “clutch.” Can the guy perform when it matters the most? Has he faced a fourth-and-10 with the game on the line and completed the pass? Does he lean in for the extra yard in the fourth quarter or does he slide short? Does he take a check-down pass on Third-and-eight or does he look for the first down? Has he beaten a team he’s not supposed to beat?
After that, I look at one thing and this is probably the most important of all the specifics I look for; does he read his progressions?
It’s easy to determine if a guy can do it. His head moves when he drops back to pass. It doesn’t have to be every single time, either. Sometimes when a QBs back foot hits his No. 1 target has a step and there’s no need. But most of the time, he’ll need to at least scan for a second. Sometimes a guy will be so sharp on a dropback he can pretend to scan to look-off a safety and open up a deep pass. That’s really worth points to me and was something Dak Prescott did at Mississippi State all the time. Putting a look and a pump fake together? Now, you’re talking about a guy that can win a title.
Myles Garrett letting the world know he wants to be a Cowboy! #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/JfZHgLUScY
— DemBoyzNews (@DemBoyzNews) February 10, 2017
After progressions, we have pocket presence and this is, 100 percent, the next most important took an NFL quarterback has. Can he feel where the rush is coming from while keeping his eyes downfield? Can he move around in the pocket without panicking and leaving it? When he does leave the pocket, does he scramble forward (good), or try to roll out the side around the rusher (bad)?
So accuracy isn’t first or second? How is that possible? If a quarterback knows his progressions and can maneuver in the pocket, the accuracy will take care of itself. Yes, some guys are more accurate than others, but there’s a big difference in throwing a ball that fits in a hand-sized hole vs throwing a ball to a streaking, wide open receiver because you took a step up in the pocket and pump faked a linebacker. But, yeah. Accuracy is fourth.
To be continued…
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