As of Tuesday morning we are officially one month away from the start of NFL free agency. We’ve already hit half of the big free agents available this offseason and where they should go, but you might have noticed a few key absences from that least. None to fear because they all make an appearance in Part II.
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DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
2014: 392 carries, 1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns, 57 catches, 416 yards
Not only did DeMarco Murray have a career year in 2014, it was his second career year in a row. Murray is just four seasons into his career and doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on him, after struggling with injuries his first two seasons in the league.
A decade ago Murray would be heading for a big payday and would have been the Cowboys’ franchise player heading into this free agency period, but now there’s a better than 70 percent chance he won’t be back with the team. The good thing for Murray is he’ll get to pick where he goes and how much money he wants to make. The bad thing for Murray is the better the team, the less money he’ll get.
Where he should end up: San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have plenty of cap space already, over $25 million in room, to craft any deal it would take to put Murray on the team. Like I said in Monday’s Part I, the Philip Rivers window is closing in San Diego and if the team really wants to make a run at the Broncos, they’ll have to hurdle Kansas City along the way. Murray, who can catch the ball out of the backfield too, is the missing piece.
Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos
2014: 43 catches, 489 yards, 12 touchdowns
With Demariyus Thomas eating up their cap space, draft picks to sign, and other free agent needs to meet, Julius Thomas is the odd man out in Denver. Thomas has been a touchdown machine with Peyton Manning over the last two seasons after spending the first two years of his career being all but invisible. Thomas has also had some injury issues, missing five games over the last two seasons and being limited in others. Still, he’s a weapon and with the tight end position become more valuable in the NFL, Thomas will have plenty of suitors.
Where he should end up: Baltimore Ravens
With Owen Daniels hitting the road, the Ravens have an opening and Thomas is the perfect guy to fill it. Joe Flacco is already one of the best postseason quarterbacks of his generation, but the lack of offensive pass weapons outside of Torrey Smith has held him back in the regular season. It’s time for the Ravens to fix that.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
2014: 24 catches, 424 yards, two touchdowns
Cameron was primed for a monster 2014 before being hampered by injuries and poor quarterback play in Cleveland. Because of the latter, Cameron has made it clear that he won’t be returning to the big prune and wants to play for a contender. Coming off a down, injury-filled year, should actually price Cameron right for one of the big boys to knock on his door.
Where he should end up: Green Bay Packers
What do you think Aaron Rodgers could do with a tight end with Cameron’s skills? If Cameron wants a ring and to go to as many Pro Bowls as he could ever want to, Green Bay is the place for him. The tight end position was the one weakness in the Packers’ offense with Andrew Quarless contributing just 29 catches for 323 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers actually have the 11th best cap space in the league at over $24 million available, but Cameron will probably come in modestly priced, especially if they work in some contract incentives.
Derrelle Revis, CB, Patriots
2014: 47 tackles, 14 passes defended, two interceptions
After a lock-down and Super Bowl-winning season with the Patriots, Revis can just about name his price in free agency this year. The Pats now look stupid not to lock him up long term when he came loose from Tampa Bay last offseason and now they’ll have to pay to keep him. The problem is Revis already has multiple suitors who’ve made it clear he’s a target for them in free agency and two of those teams are in New England’s own division. Revis has shown that he’s money-motivated before and if the Patriots aren’t willing to outspend everybody else, he’s gone.
Where he should end up: Buffalo Bills
Rex Ryan loves Revis and knows exactly how to use him. The only problem when the two were in New York was management’s inability to work out the money to keep Revis happy. While Revis can’t expect the huge payday he got back in 2010 with the Jets, he’ll get plenty to join his former coach for a fresh playoff run in Buffalo.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings/Montgomery County Family Court
2014: 21 carries, 75 yards, 0 touchdowns, one no-contest plea
You can argue that Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the history of the league, but what you can’t argue is that no one has done a better job teaching his kid a lesson that he’ll never forget than “All Day” himself. That lesson might be that his dad is a brutal moron, but trust me, it stuck. Peterson and the NFLPA are suing the NFL to get the running back and world-class switching enthusiast reinstated to the NFL before April 15. Either way, Peterson’s time with the Vikings is likely at an end so he’s hitting the open market with fresh legs and his 10,190 career yards and 86 touchdowns and signing with the highest bidder. Which will be…
Where he should end up: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas owner Jerry Jones has never shied away from his desire to have Peterson in the silver and white and Peterson has made it clear to Jones that he feels the same way. If Peterson gets cut loose by the Vikings officially, he’ll only take one visit and that will be to Dallas and the Cowboys will instantly get 10/1 odds to win Super Bowl 50.
Ndomukong Suh, DT, Lions
2014: 53 tackles, 8.5 sacks, three passes defended
Suh first took the field for the Lions in 2010 and instantly became one of the most dominant interior defensive linemen in the league and hasn’t taken a break from that since. As the No. 2 pick in the last draft before the new collective bargaining agreement, Suh is already crazy rich and can actually make his choice on where he’s going to play in 2015 based on any criteria he wants. He can go for another big payday, which he would get, but play for a loser or he could take a little less money and try to get a ring. Suh has developed a reputation as a dirty player in his five seasons and that might give some teams pause before signing him and if you believe that, I’ve got some atmospheric science information from Bill Belichick you’ll be very interested in.
Where he should end up: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are the best of both worlds for Suh. They have tons of open cap space (over $22 million) and are rebuilding a 4-3 defense from the ground up under a head coach, Dan Quinn, who knows how to get pressure with his front four. It’s a perfect match and the fact that Suh will get to stay inside a dome shouldn’t hurt too much either.
