The Dallas Mavericks were deemed to be a championship contender before they even got their hands on Rajon Rondo, so with the four-time All-Star in the lineup, they were supposed to move up to the next level.
However, the Mavericks are still right about where they were: A quality Western Conference team but one that’s not likely to have home-court advantage for many rounds, if any, and one that isn’t likely to make a long playoff journey. They were 19-8 before him and are just 21-16 since he arrived. Worse yet, they’ve been in a tailspin recently as they’ve dropped four of five and Rondo has clashed with head coach Rick Carlisle. Although we all made a lot of assumptions as soon as the Mavs acquired Rondo, the truth is that he hasn’t been a good fit.
Offense Has Fallen Off
The Mavericks have so many offensive weapons that one would think that adding Rondo to the mix – a pass-first point guard who has been known to make everyone around him better – would propel this team, however, that’s not been the case. This was a team that was among the league leaders in terms of offense before the trade, as they were scoring nearly 114 points per 100 possessions.
The Mavs made the deal assuming they’d lose a little bit on the offensive end – at least to start – while gaining on the defensive end. While that was true early on, that impact has faded. The Mavs were giving up 105.1 points per 100 possessions before the move, which was in the bottom third of the league. But more recently (since the start of 2015), their defense is giving up 102 points per 100 possessions while their offense is only scoring 103. Previously, they had been outscoring opponents by almost 10 points per game but now that’s dropped to just a single point. That explains why they’re struggling.
Rondo’s Strengths Don’t Match The Team’s Goals
The crux of it here is that the Mavericks run an offense that is not suited to Rondo’s strengths. Getting into the X’s and O’s, they have a strategy where the system creates shots for the players. Before they shipped off Jameer Nelson as part of the package for Rondo, they had Nelson space the floor and have Monta Ellis as the main ball handler. They moved the ball very well with reversals and secondary pick-and-roll action, and the ball would keep moving until someone had an opening. However, Rondo is a player who has played his entire career while serving as the creator. He is a guy who makes others around him bettor by creating shots for them. But in this setup, he doesn’t need to do that, so those two factors are clashing and it’s holding the Mavericks back.
He’s Not A Good Shooter
Rondo has never been a particularly good shooter as he has a 46.9% career field goal percentage, he shoots 26.3% from three and hits 60.8% of his free throws. While you can live with those numbers if he’s playing amazing in all of the other realms and making his teammates better, the Mavericks haven’t seen him do that and all of his shooting numbers have deteriorated even further. As of the weekend, Rondo is shooting just 41.6% with the Mavs while hitting a paltry 29.6% of his free throws. How is that even possible? And since he can’t hit his free throws, he’s become far too tentative driving to the basket as opponents know it’s easier to just send him to the line.
While Nelson is way past his prime and nobody would ever say he’s the better player, in this system he was. He was a key cog while Rondo has been the man that’s broken it.
Time To Reevaluate
Over the weekend, Rondo said he’s open to re-signing with the Mavericks long term but both he and the Mavericks might want to rethink the marriage. Right now, it’s just not working out because by definition, this is a team that’s trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.
