Tom Brady and the New England Patriots delivered another clutch performance with a 22-17 comeback win over the New York Jets on Sunday. But it was closer than expected considering the Jets are only a three-win team. Now they’ll be looking for a better showing this week as they host a struggling Los Angeles Rams team in Week 13. The Rams are the biggest underdog of the week as they’re getting 13.5 points in this spot.
Moneyline: New England -750
Handicap/Spread Odds: New England -13.5
Total O/U: 45
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/28/12 | NE 45 – LA 7 | NE -7.5 | O 46 |
| 10/26/08 | LA 16 – NE 23 | LA 9 | U 41 |
| 11/07/04 | NE 40 – LA 22 | NE 2 | O 49.5 |
| 02/03/02 | LA 17 – NE 20 | NE 14 | U 53 |
| 11/18/01 | LA 24 – NE 17 | NE 8 | U 47.5 |
On the Rams Side of the Ball: (4-7 Record, 4-6-1 ATS)
The Rams are coming off an embarrassing 49-21 loss to the New Orleans Saints in which Sean Payton made sure to run up the score against defensive coordinator Greg Williams in his return to the Superdome. Los Angeles allowed Drew Brees to throw for 310 yards and four touchdowns while Mark Ingram torched them for 146 yards and a pair of scores on the ground. The Rams defense gave up 555 total yards and things won’t get any easier on the road in New England this Sunday. It might not help that the Rams will be starting a rookie quarterback in Jared Goff either, as Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick has dominated first-year passers in the past.
Last 5 Results: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/27/16 | @ NO | L 21-49 | L 8 | O 45 |
| 11/20/16 | MIA | L 10-14 | L -1 | U 39 |
| 11/13/16 | W 9-6 | W -1 | L -7.5 | U 39 |
| 11/06/16 | @ CAR | L 10-13 | P 3 | U 44.5 |
| 10/23/16 | NYG | L 10-17 | L 2.5 | U 44.5 |
On the Patriots Side of the Ball: (9-2 Record, 8-3 ATS)
Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will certainly have some surprises in store for Goff and the Rams offense. New England ranks third in the NFL in scoring defense this season and they held the Jets to 333 total yards on Sunday. We all know the history of Belichick confusing young quarterbacks and if Goff has problems with a feeble Saints defense, he’s going to struggle in New England.
The Patriots offense has a number of injuries to deal with as Brady is fighting through a knee injury while tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett could be sidelined or limited with injuries of their own. New England’s biggest focus is clinching the top seed in the AFC while getting healthy, so it won’t be a surprise if they lean on their rushing attack and wide receivers like Julian Edelman and rookie Malcolm Mitchell a little more this week. Mitchell had five catches for 42 yards and two scores including the game-winning touchdown against the Jets.
Last 5 Results: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/26/16 | @NYJ | W 22-17 | L -8.5 | U 48 |
| 11/20/16 | @ SF | W 30-17 | W -10.5 | U 51.5 |
| 11/13/16 | SEA | L 24-31 | L -7.5 | O 49.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @ BUF | W 41-25 | W -5.5 | O 48 |
| 10/23/16 | @ PIT | W 27-16 | W -7.5 | U 49 |
Quick Analysis
Despite their overall success, the Patriots are just 3-2 against the spread at home this season and have dropped two of their last three against the spread overall. New England is pretty banged up right now and they will be giving up 13.5 points in this one. They’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points 29 times since 1992 but they are only 13-16 ATS in that span.
Meanwhile, the Rams are a so-so 4-6-1 against the spread this season and five of their previous six games have been determined by one score. But they look like they’re fading as they’ve lost six of seven and have only covered the spread once in that span.
Prediction:
The extra half-point would be lovely for those betting on the Rams but even at 13.5 points they should get some action. Los Angeles will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing blowout loss but they did beat the New York Jets three weeks ago and their average margin of defeat in losses to the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins was just 3.5. That said, Brady and company will be looking to bounce back with a better effort than they showed against the Jets last week and they will face a rookie quarterback that was almost completely shut down by the Saints defense in the second half of last week’s game.
Even though the Patriots are banged up, they might only need three touchdowns to cover. They are 46-3 in their last 49 as a favorite of 10 or more and 5-0 in the last three seasons. They have covered the spread in four of those contests and should again on Sunday.
Pick: New England -13.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
