NBA Series Preview: The Raptors come into this round with one of their most talented postseason teams. However, LeBron James is 24-7 in his last six Eastern Conference semifinals series.
#3 Toronto Raptors (55-33) vs. #2 Cleveland Cavaliers (55-31).
Series Odds: Cavaliers -475, Raptors +380.
Series schedule (courtesy of nba.com):
Game 1 – Monday, May 1, Toronto at Cleveland, 7 p.m., TNT
Game 2 – Wednesday, May 3, Toronto at Cleveland, 7 p.m., TNT
Game 3 – Friday, May 5, Cleveland at Toronto, 7 p.m., ESPN
Game 4 – Sunday, May 7, Cleveland at Toronto, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Game 5 – Tuesday, May 9, Toronto at Cleveland, TBD, TNT
Game 6 – Thursday, May 11, Cleveland at Toronto, TBD, ESPN
Game 7 – Sunday, May 14, Toronto at Cleveland, TBD, TNT
Regular season series: Cavaliers 3-1.
ATS records: Cleveland 38-45-3, Toronto 46-42.
Over/under records: Cleveland 50-36, Toronto 47-39-2.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 6 games.
LeBron James continued his perfect record in the first round last week after his Cavaliers swept Indiana. James’ first-round series record is 12-0 and his record for first-round games is an astounding 48-7. He has won his last 21 straight first-round games.
However, James has lost three of his 11 second-round series. In fact, he lost three of his first five second-round series before making this current run of six straight NBA Finals appearances. LeBron has only had two sweeps in the second round. His overall record in the second round is 40-21. However, during the last six seasons, his second-round record is 24-7.
These two teams met in the Eastern Conference finals last year with the Cavaliers winning the series in six games. The home team won every game until Cleveland routed the Raptors 113-87 in Game 6 at Toronto. The winning team covered the Vegas spread in all six games.
Last year’s conference finals games were not very competitive. Game 4 at Toronto was the only close game of the series. The Raptors won that game 105-99 after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. Toronto won by 15 points in Game 3. However, the margins of victory Cleveland had over the Raptors was immense. The Cavs won by margins of 19, 26, 33 and 38 points.
The reason was simply because Toronto was tired. Both of their previous two series went seven games. Cleveland swept their previous two series. This is why you cannot underestimate the importance of putting a team away in four or five games in the early rounds as it allows your players to get more rest.
This season, the Cavs won the three games that mattered early in the season. The Raptors won the fourth game at Cleveland on the second to last day of the regular season. However, the Cavaliers sat their Big 3 of LeBron, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love during that game.
All three of Cleveland’s wins were by four points or less this season. Do not let that fool you though, as LeBron and the Cavaliers have been able to flip the switch in the playoffs. During the 2015-16 regular season, Toronto beat the Cavs twice by four points or less, while Cleveland blew out the Raptors in their win.
However, it does not appear as though the 2016-17 Cavaliers are a team who is going to blow out too many opponents this postseason. Cleveland swept the Pacers in the first round, but their largest margin of victory was six points. So despite four double-digit margins of victory in the Raptors’ first round series against Milwaukee, I think most of the games in this conference semifinals series will be competitive.
Here are the stat lines for the key players for both teams in the head-to-head matchup for those three games that mattered this year.
Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan averaged 29.7 points per games, 9.7 assists per game and 5.8 rebounds per game, while Kyle Lowry added 21.7 points per game, 7.3 assists per game and 3.3 rebounds per game. For the Cavs, Lebron averaged 27.7 points per game, 9.7 assists per game and 8.3 rebounds per game, Irving added 24.7 points per game, 5.7 assists per game and 4.3 rebounds per game while Love added 21.7 points per game and 12.3 rebounds per game.
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