The New England Patriots are back on track to finish with the best record in the AFC. The Oakland Raiders lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football to give the Patriots a half-game lead over Oakland for the best record in their conference but it will be on New England to take advantage. The Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens in a marquee matchup on Monday Night Football this week and all eyes will be on Gillette Stadium to see if they can capitalize.
Moneyline: New England -350
Handicap/Spread Odds: New England -7
Total O/U: 45
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 01/10/15 | BAL 31 – NE 35 | BAL 7 | O 47.5 |
| 12/22/13 | NE 41 – BAL 7 | NE -1.5 | O 45.5 |
| 01/20/13 | BAL 28 – NE 13 | BAL 8 | U 49.5 |
| 09/23/12 | NE 30 – BAL 31 | NE 2.5 | O 48.5 |
| 01/22/12 | BAL 20 – NE 23 | BAL 7 | U 50 |
On The Ravens Side of the Ball (7-5 Record, 6-6 ATS)
The Ravens are locked in their own battle as they look to edge out the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the AFC North and earn a division crown. Baltimore is coming off an absolutely dominant win over the Miami Dolphins in which they had their way on both sides of the football but they have to be ready for a much tougher challenge this week. Joe Flacco completed 36-of-47 pass attempts for 381 yards and four touchdowns and he will be relied on to deliver another strong performance in a huge game against New England. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense imposed its will on the Dolphins last week and will need to step up again to contain Tom Brady and the explosive Patriots offense.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/2016 | MIA | W 38-6 | W -3.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/27/16 | CIN | W 19-14 | W -3.5 | U 41.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @DAL | L 17-27 | L 7 | U 44.5 |
| 11/10/2016 | CLE | W 28-7 | W -7.5 | U 44 |
| 11/06/2016 | PIT | W 21-14 | W 3.5 | U 46 |
On The Patriots Side of the Ball (10-2 Record, 9-3 ATS)
New England is also coming off a lopsided victory as they dominated the Los Angeles Rams in a 26-10 win on Sunday to push their win streak to three in a row. The Patriots held Los Angeles to just 162 total yards and their second-ranked scoring defense is in excellent shape heading in to their matchup with Baltimore. Obviously Joe Flacco and company will present some tougher challenges than New England faced last week against Jared Goff but it’s hard to overlook how good this unit has been even after trading their top linebacker in Jamie Collins. Meanwhile, Brady became the NFL’s all-time wins leader with No. 201 last week when he threw for 269 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots have remained committed to a strong balance between the run and pass and they will definitely bring that approach to the table against the Ravens with running back LeGarrette Blount primed to get a good number of touches against a tough run defense.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/2016 | LA | W 26-10 | W -13 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | @NYJ | W 22-17 | L -8.5 | U 48 |
| 11/20/16 | @SF | W 30-17 | W -10.5 | U 51.5 |
| 11/13/16 | SEA | L 24-31 | L -7.5 | O 49.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @BUF | W 41-25 | W -5.5 | O 48 |
Quick Analysis
The Patriots have won each of the last two meetings between these teams including in the 2015 playoffs when they beat Baltimore on their way to a Super Bowl win. However, New England is just 2-2 against the spread over its last four games as they failed to cover against the New York Jets and at home in their loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Meanwhile, Baltimore has covered in four of its last five but is still just 6-6 against the spread this season.
Prediction
The Patriots dominated on both sides of the football in their win over the Rams last week but they were held to a close victory by the Jets a couple of weeks ago and they didn’t look good at all in their loss to the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago. New England is dealing with a number of key injuries on offense right now and that will make moving the football against the Ravens that much tougher this week. Baltimore will also have a tough time moving the football but they should be able to do enough on both sides of the football to keep this game close. The Patriots might win the game but the Ravens will cover the number.
Pick: Baltimore +7
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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