The South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) and the Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) will get together in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl on Saturday. The game will begin Saturday at 9:15 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
Bowling Green lost in ugly fashion to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Championship game. Gehrig Dieter had a quality performance in the loss, totaling two catches for 56 yards and one TD. Ryan Burbrink finished with 56 yards on five receptions. South Alabama came up short, losing a game they could have won against Navy 42-40 in their matchup. Shavarez Smith had a big game for the Jaguars, recording six catches for 80 yards and two TDs. Terrance Timmons had a great game as well, adding 124 yards and a TD on 15 carries.
As a slight one-point underdog, the Jaguars look to upset the Falcons. The Over/Under (O/U) is set at 55 points. The Falcons enter the game with records of 7-6 Straight Up (SU) and 4-8-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In their five most recent matchups, the Falcons went 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. The Falcons are known to air it out. Their 38.9 passing attempts per game are the 21st-most in the land. Recently, Bowling Green’s pass defense has wreaked havoc on its opponents. During their last five games, the Falcons gave up 235.4 passing yards per game. If this game is going to be close, the Jaguars need to watch out for Bowling Green’s ball thieves. They average the 17th-most turnovers with 2.2 per game.
In the other locker room, the Jaguars have 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, South Alabama has a record of 1-4 both SU and ATS. Odds are South Alabama will rely on its run game against a defense that allows 206.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 104th in the nation. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Falcons to keep up with South Alabama’s defense in a few areas. The Falcons are matching up with South Alabama’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, South Alabama’s opponents have only averaged 197.6 yards through the air. Turnovers could allow the Jaguars to slide by the Falcons, who are 106th in the country in giveaways at home with 2.1 per game. The Jaguars should have no trouble keeping Bowling Green’s offense off the field. This season, the Falcons have had an average time of possession of 26:34 per game, ranking them 126th in the country.
Predictions: SU Winner – BGSU, ATS Winner – BGSU, O/U – Over
Notes
South Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
Bowling Green is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
South Alabama is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Bowling Green is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of South Alabama’s last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green’s last 8 games.
South Alabama is 4-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Bowling Green is 5-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
South Alabama is 4-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Bowling Green is 5-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
South Alabama is only 1-6 SU this season when turning the ball over more than its opponent.
Bowling Green is undefeated 2-1 SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, and 5-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
According to national passing ranks, South Alabama has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 100th in the nation) will face the 126th-ranked pass defense of Bowling Green, while its 32nd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 45th-ranked passing game of the Falcons.
The Bowling Green rushing attack is ranked 55th in the nation, while the South Alabama run defense is only ranked 90th. The Jaguars rushing game is ranked 48th, compared to the 104th-ranked run defense of the Falcons.
