The upcoming college football season will feature a lot of the usual suspects in terms of teams expected to do very well. The point to note about successful programs is that they set such high standards that they can win 10 games and have a down year. At most places, a 10-2 regular season is cause for celebration. Yet, if each of these programs below finish 10-2, they will consider the season a disappointment, chiefly because two losses would very likely knock them out of the College Football Playoff. Therein lies the point: The coaches and players at these programs are going to work very hard to ensure that they don’t stumble this upcoming season.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Regular Season Win Total: 10.5
The Crimson Tide lose a lot on their defense, and surely, the reason the Tide have their number at 10.5 and not higher is the fact that they open their season against Florida State, which is another national championship contender. However, if you are convinced that Alabama will win that game, you should confidently put the Tide at the over here. They play LSU and Auburn, two very tough teams, but the LSU game is at home, and Alabama has had Auburn’s number the past three seasons. You would need to be convinced that Florida State is better than Alabama, and that Auburn is the SEC favorite, if you are going to play the under with the Tide. The percentages suggest that the over is the better play.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Regular Season Win Total: 10
The Buckeyes don’t rebuild. They simply reload. You might be worried about the early-season game against Oklahoma, but Ohio State dismantled the Sooners a year ago in Oklahoma. Why would they not be able to do the same thing again this year? Then in the Big Ten, Ohio State has to get past Penn State, a team it failed to beat last year. Since OSU hosts Penn State in 2017, the Buckeyes should be able to accomplish that feat. The road game at Michigan will be tough, but if Ohio State wins those home games against Oklahoma and Penn State, it should still end the season with 11 wins even if it loses to Jim Harbaugh. At the very least, Ohio State will not win fewer than 10 games. At worst, you will get a push on this bet. The odds of Ohio State failing to win 10 are microscopically low.
Washington Huskies
Regular Season Win Total: 9.5
When the Huskies began last season, few expected them to be as great as they turned out to be. It is different this year. Everyone expects Washington to be a really good. The question is if losses in the secondary and elsewhere on the defense will make life too difficult for the offense in 2017. Washington has to go to Stanford and to Colorado. Those won’t be easy road trips. Oregon should be a lot better this season under first-year head coach Willie Taggart. Yet, Washington still has Jake Browning at quarterback and a loaded set of skill people. The Huskies went 11-1 in their first 12 games of 2016. With the over-under at 9.5, they could regress by one game and still hit the over. That looks attractive.
Florida State Seminoles
Regular Season Win Total: 9.5
The Seminoles could lose to Alabama and Clemson, but they would still hit the over if they win every other game. If Florida State beats Clemson, it is virtually assured of hitting the over. Since Clemson does not have Deshaun Watson anymore, the Seminoles have to like their chances against the Tigers. They look like the strongest team in the ACC heading into the season, which means double-digit wins is very attainable to them.
Michigan Wolverines
Regular Season Win Total: 9
The Wolverines lost a lot of bodies to the NFL Draft, but Jim Harbaugh knows how to restock the shelves. He played a lot of freshmen last year, anticipating the transition to 2017. If a reasonable percentage of those freshmen play well as sophomores, Michigan should beat Florida and Penn State and should ultimately have nothing to worry about in terms of the over-under.
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