Although the football season is more than a 100 days out, we did get an early look at the regular season win totals from the odds makers this week. Las Vegas released the lines for regular season wins for most of the major teams, which means we can do some early handicapping.
Among the various choices on the board, here is a look at the ones are most likely to go under their first posted totals.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Regular Season Win Total: 9.5
The Nittany Lions certainly had a great 2016 season. They return running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Trace McSorley. Offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead is back to lead PSU’s explosive offense. Yet, a couple things need to be kept in mind when looking at that 9.5-win total. First and foremost, Penn State has to play Michigan and Ohio State. Those are two excellent programs, and Michigan clobbered Penn State last season. If the Wolverines and Buckeyes both beat Penn State, the Nittany Lions would have to go 10-0 in their other 10 games in order to hit the over. Second, if Penn State loses those two games, it is hard to see how it could possibly qualify for a return trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, which would deny Penn State a 13th game and therefore another chance to push its win total above 9.5. This might be one of the more deceptive picks on the board.
LSU Tigers
Regular Season Win Total: 9
The Tigers have tons of defensive talent, but they are being coached by Ed Orgeron, who has never been successful as a permanent head coach. He has been solid as an interim on a few occasions, but he has not yet proved that he can be the successful face of a program. The jury is very much out on whether the Tigers can get their offense, and more specifically, their quarterbacks, to perform well. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada comes from Pittsburgh to try to make that happen. He could be just what LSU needed as a coordinator, but even then, it might require one transitional year – with a lot of fits and starts and misfires – to gain comfort for 2018 and beyond. LSU faces Auburn and Alabama. Should it lose those two games, hitting the over becomes extremely difficult. The under seems to be the safer play. This doesn’t have the feel of a double-digit win team.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Regular Season Win Total: 7.5
When the Hokies watched Jerod Evans declare for the NFL Draft instead of coming back for another season, they lost the quarterback they hoped to have in 2017. Evans did not get drafted – he was still a year away from making good money in the NFL Draft. He made a terrible decision, but it’s one which has left Virginia Tech in an uncertain place heading into this season. Head coach Justin Fuente is adept at tutoring quarterbacks, but even he might have to go through a difficult time this season under circumstances he probably wasn’t expecting. The Evans decision likely set this program back in 2017, though the long-term outlook for the Hokies is very promising.
Oregon Ducks
Regular Season Win Total: 8
The Ducks won just four games last year, and their defense needs a lot of work. Plus, the rest of the Pac-12 North is strong, with Washington, Washington State, Stanford and Oregon State all appearing to be improved (California being the exception). It will be tough for Oregon to improve by four games and get a push. The Ducks could improve by three games and still hit the under. That’s a good bet in season one under coach Willie Taggart.
Colorado Buffalos
Regular Season Win Total: 7.5
The Buffaloes lost most of their star-studded secondary from 2016. They lost defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt to Pac-12 foe Oregon. They lost their defensive backs coach Joe Tumpkin to a messy, nasty, disturbing scandal. Colorado has to play Washington and USC, among other teams. The Buffaloes seem to be set up for a fall this year after their unexpectedly huge 2016 season.
Click here to bet on the college football futures for the 2017 college football season right now. DSI will have all of the latest lines, spreads and props for this year’s action!
