The right Belmont Stakes style will be the key to victory on Saturday June 10 and the best way for a horse to approach this classic is to be the master of his own destiny.
The Belmont Stakes is a true test of champions and whoever comes out on top on Saturday June 10 will be a deserving winner.
The best trait to have when talking about the Belmont Stakes is to have positional speed. A runner should be within the realm of the leaders turning for home, and then have enough in the tank to combine stamina and conditioning in the final furlong.
Even though most styles of the sophomores are very evident by the time they are set to enter the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, it will still be the first time this crop runs this far and questions have to be answered. As much as breeding and the innate blood evident to get the trip, conditioning will be of the utmost and so will racing style.
So that’s what we will be dealing with again this year, a journey that is grueling and taxing. It is a distance that is rarely run these days. It comes at a time when a lot of the runners have already been through the wars this season and just when fatigue is starting to set in.
Another thing fans have to understand is that these horses are not machines, that there is blood running through those veins and not just octane. And just like when something freaky happens on the track, like a horse that breaks down and causes a spill, it has a mental as well as physical response.
Casual bettors sometimes figure that the longer races favor the late runners with more real time to catch the leaders but be very careful before just backing some of the deep closers that are aiming for the third jewel, as, just like in most races, tactical speed is crucial.
And who better to take a hint from in that department than Woody Stephens who won 5 straight Belmont Stakes through 1986. The Hall of Fame trainer once said, ‘stamina wins the Belmont but you have to have a fit horse who has speed.’
One thing that can’t really be left out of the strategy in the Belmont Stakes is the jockey factor. The mile and a half distance is rarely used at Belmont and unless a starter handicap or a race that is removed from turf goes, it’s possible that the distance is only used on this one day. Pace can be tricky and it can fool even experienced riders that are not used to riding in New York.
That could have been the case when Stewart Elliot got nailed in the Belmont Stakes by Birdstone in 2004 when he rode Smarty Jones. Edgar Prado was aboard Birdstone and Belmont Park is his home track. The reality is that New York-based riders have a built-in edge.
Remember, no matter how impressive a horse has been coming to the Belmont Stakes, there are no cinches in this affair.
Consider the ill-timed Bobby Frankel quote in the Chicago Sun Times after Smarty Jones crushed Frankel’s trainee Master David in the Kentucky Derby. This legendary trainer was fooled, Frankel: “Smarty Jones looks like a superstar. He looks like a cinch in the Belmont unless something goes wrong. He likes off tracks. He likes fast tracks. He goes along in a race and doesn’t need anyone to set the pace for him. He’s the complete horse.”
Make that incomplete.
Last year was a Belmont Stakes exception as far as the right Belmont Stakes style is concerned. Todd Pletcher’s student Destin was sitting right outside of rank outsider Gettysburg early on and he took the lead with a quarter of a mile to go. Javier Castellano was aloft and the jockey opened up a length and a half lead at the top of the stretch but it was not enough. Creator overcame his marooned 13 post and came from third to last to win by a scant nose.
In 2015, it was back to business as usual as far as right Belmont Stakes style goes. American Pharoah, under jockey Victor Espinoza, went right to the front in the Belmont Stakes. He set relatively soft fractions of
24.06, 48.83, 1:13.41, and 1:37.99 while pressed by Materiality. At that point, American Pharoah ran away from his foes winning by over five lengths to secure the Triple Crown.
In 2014 Tonalist proved to have the right Belmont Stakes style to succeed. The Christophe Clement runner was strung out five wide on the first turn and didn’t get into the race immediately. He quickly moved up to third about a length away from the leader Commissioner and just bulled his way home to win by a head at 9-1.
Classic Empire is one of the runners that has the right Belmont Stakes style to win this year. He has enough gas early to gain position and that will be half the battle.
Meantime is another runner that will be vying for the lead from the sound of the bell. He is a free-wheeling runner and he has enough velocity to get the first run on the dee closers.
Chad Brown’s trainee Twisted Tom also figures to be forwardly placed in the Belmont Stakes. In two of his last 3 wins he was sitting in the second spot early and then just ignited when it counted.
One runner that is an unknown as far as the right Belmont Stakes style is Epicharis. This runner is very talented. He won his first four races and lost his last race by only a head in Dubai. His first three wins were by a combined 25 lengths and he appears to have the stamina to have a say in the outcome of Saturday’s race.
Bettors need to stay focused when evaluating the Belmont Stakes this weekend. Just like coming up to big events like the NBA Finals or the Super Bowl, the nuts and bolts of the players can get lost in the shuffle. Bettors need to pay attention to the speed of the contenders and attempt to visualize how the race will develop.
Once a player can make a hard-earned educated guess of how the race will unfold, the other important issues will fall into place.
