The road to the Kentucky Derby varies from season to season and most players are aware there is no golden avenue that horses can take. To succeed on the road to the Kentucky Derby there were a few things that can be common to most of the Derby heroes.
The spacing between the final prep and when the Kentucky Derby has been run has fluctuated a bit but not much.
The last twelve Derby winners had been off from 21 to 42 days before succeeding the first Saturday in May.
Several different trainers have won this race during this time span and only a handful horses had run out of the money in their last race before the Derby.
Giacomo had run fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but came from 18th and 14 lengths off the lead to win the Derby and paid $102.60.
Mine That Bird did Giacomo one better. He was 4th in his final prep, the Sunland Derby, but then he blew up the tote. In 2009 Mine That Bird was 12th and 7 lengths off the league before getting up to win and pay $103.20.
In 2013 Orb came out of a victory in the Florida Derby and 34 days later won at Churchill. He was 16th and 10 lengths off the lead after a half mile of the Derby.
In 2011, the road to the Kentucky Derby for Animal Kingdom was a bit unusual. He was also coming off a win, but that victory came in the Spiral Stakes. He was 10th and 6 lengths off the lead before success in the Kentucky Derby.
Five years ago I’ll Have Another parlayed a win in the Santa Anita Derby to Kentucky glory. He was sixth, six and a half-lengths off the lead a half-mile into the Derby before exploding to score and pay $32.60.
In 2014 California Chrome won the San Felipe Stakes and then parlayed that victory to a romp in the Santa Anita Derby. He became the first California-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1962.
History was made in 2015 by Bob Baffert’s American Pharoah. The $300,000 purchase had won a pair of Grade 1 races as a juvenile but he only had two preps on his road to the Kentucky Derby. He shipped into Oaklawn Park and won the Rebel Stakes controlling the pace and the outcome. He returned just about a month later and took the Arkansas Derby, also at Oaklawn. Training on his road to the Kentucky Derby after his Oaklawn finale included one sizzling drill at Churchill Downs. He went :58 2/5 for five furlongs seven days before the Kentucky Derby. He then not only won the Derby, but the Triple Crown.
Last year Nyquist was a star long before his road to the Kentucky Derby. He was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile and he kicked off his sophomore campaign win a sprint win in the San Vicente. He shipped to Florida and won the Florida Derby and he was set. Like American Pharoah he only needed two preps on his road to the Kentucky Derby to succeed.
Several of the recent Kentucky Derby winners have had just two preps as sophomores. Back in the day, a Kentucky Derby horse was preferred to be a battle-tested player. Trainers wanted their runners hard-nosed and tough and to have the ability to overcome adversity. Now it seems like brilliant speed, a clever pedigree, a well thought out game plan and a fresh horse are important ingredients.
Things change every year, obviously, but for players that are looking for a life changing score, the superfecta is the place to be.
In 2013 Orb keyed $2 superfecta paid $57,084. Over the years the average superfecta approached the $100,000 mark and the highest was $864,253.
This is one reason that horsemen, fans, bettors and casual players all get Derby Fever.
With the day dwindling down toward that first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, try to focus in on the things that have been successful recently.
This race is not for the meek and mild, it’s for the adventurous player that is not afraid of winning big.
