NBA Preview: The Spurs are in a must-win situation as they need to slow down the Rockets in Game 2.
#3 Houston Rockets (60-28) at #2 San Antonio Spurs (65-24), Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -5.5. Total 215.
The Rockets throttled San Antonio in Game 1 at the AT&T Center 126-99 on Monday. Houston set a new franchise record for most three-pointers in a playoff game with 22. Since the Spurs only hit 9 three-pointers, this means the Rockets outscored them 66-27 from beyond the arc.
The Rockets rewrote the record books in the regular season shooting three-pointers, too. They set new records for most three-pointers made and attempted in a season. Houston’s 1181 three-pointers made surpassed Golden State’s record set last season by 104 made threes. Houston’s 3306 attempted three-pointers this season shattered Golden State’s record set last season by 714 attempts. The difference is the Warriors shot 41.6% last year, while Houston only shot 35.7% this year shooting all those three-pointers.
This was a very competitive series in the regular season. Three of the four games were decided by two points and the other game was decided by six points. However, any time a team makes 22 three-pointers in a game, they are likely to win and win big. Once I have my database updated for next year, I will hopefully be able to spit out those numbers.
The Rockets did not make more than 11 three-pointers in any of the five games against Oklahoma City in the first round. Houston won by 31 points against the Thunder in Game 1. Oklahoma City led Game 2 for the first 40 minutes before a tired Russell Westbrook faltered down the stretch and the Rockets won the game 115-111.
The point is that basketball is a game of adjustments. There are in-game adjustments, half-time adjustments and during a playoff series there are also between-game adjustments. The Rockets crushed Oklahoma City 118-87 in Game 1. However, the Thunder made the necessary adjustments going into Game 2. If Westbrook had not been exhausted in the fourth quarter, OKC may have won that game.
Now the Rockets throttle the Spurs by 27 points in Game 1. The game was not even that close as they led by 39 at one point. Houston also led by 30 points at the half. That is the largest halftime deficit San Antonio has ever had under Gregg Popovich’s tenure as coach. Popovich is a basketball coach renown for his X’s and O’s. He will get his opportunity to show his wisdom in Game 2 because many adjustments are going to be needed by the Spurs to even this series.
All the talking heads on television have already written off San Antonio in this series. The Spurs are too old. They cannot compete with the fast-paced, run-and-gun and shoot-‘em-up style of Houston coach Mike D’Antoni. They are a one-man team now with Kawhi Leonard and we saw how that worked out with Westbrook and OKC in the previous series.
Sure, this Spurs’ team is older. However, I would not write San Antonio’s obituary just yet. I have been watching the NBA for over 30 years and have had the NBA package for more than 15 years. The one thing I have noticed is that a team is not as good or as bad as their last game. The Spurs looked every bit as terrible as the Rockets looked fabulous and unbeatable. I have seen this script a couple thousand times before in the NBA. We need to be careful not to overreact to what we saw in Game 1.
It is likely that the Rockets will not make 22 three-pointers in Game 2. It is likely that the Spurs have been coached up by Popovich and will have a different game plan for Game 2. Furthermore, it is also likely that the Spurs are going to win this game.
San Antonio has three things that Oklahoma City did not have in their Game 2 against the Rockets. The Spurs have home court, more talented players to support their superstar player and a savvy veteran coach with five championship rings.
The only thing I am not crazy about here is laying the points. I feel strongly that the Spurs are going to win this game. However, I agree with the talking heads on one thing: this is not the same Spurs team from the last several years. The Spurs’ team that most people know would have defeated the Grizzlies in Game 4 at Memphis and won that series in five games. San Antonio struggled mightily to win that series in six games.
This is a must-win game for the Spurs. They know the series is over if they lose to Houston tonight. However, I never take any team in any sport just because it is a must-win game. This is a veteran team with a veteran coach who are more than capable of having a response tonight in a big bounce-back situational spot. I am going to make this bet a smaller play though, because I am afraid of the Spurs possibly winning by less than 6 points.
My pick:
San Antonio Spurs -5.5, laying $55 to win $50 (1 unit, small play).
Good luck.
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