NBA Preview: The Spurs know they will see a small lineup early and often on Tuesday from the Rockets. Coach Gregg Popovich will need to find a way to stop Houston in order to win this pivotal Game 5.
#3 Houston Rockets (61-30) at #2 San Antonio Spurs (67-25), Tuesday, 8 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -5.5. Total 214.5.
Series: Tied 2-2.
Only time will tell if the injury to Rockets center Nenê Hilario will be a blessing in disguise or not for Houston. Nenê had to leave the game with a left groin injury Sunday night and did no return. Houston coach Mike D’Antoni decided to go small the rest of the game. Eric Gordon and Lou Williams got extended minutes and the Rockets returned to their Game 1 form with a 125-104 victory over the Spurs.
The Rockets shot 19-for-43 from beyond the arc and outscored San Antonio 57 to 21 from three-point land. This was the same formula Houston used in Game 1 when they shot 22-for-50 for 66 points from three-point land. The Rockets outscored the Spurs 66 to 27 in Game 1 from beyond the arc.
As it turned out, Nenê suffered a torn left adductor muscle and will miss the remainder of the playoffs. However, this may not be a bad thing if the Rockets can play this well with their smaller lineup. James Harden, the Rockets point guard and MVP candidate, was guarding the Spurs’ LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol during different stages of the game.
This means that Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will have to make adjustments again between games. Does Popovich continue to play Gasol and Aldridge at the same time or does he go smaller? Popovich certainly is not going to answer that question before the game starts.
The Spurs did rise up in Game 3 after Tony Parker’s season-ending injury in Game 2 to win 103-92. However, that momentum did not last long as Houston thrashed the Spurs in Game 4.
From a handicapping perspective, I see that Houston shot well from three-point land (44%) in Game 1. Houston then was 11-for-34 shooting three-pointers (32.4%) in Game 2. I see that the Rockets shot well beyond the arc (44.2%) in Game 4. So I look for shooting numbers similar to Game 2 for Game 5 from the Rockets.
Gordon has promised to launch plenty of three-pointers for Game 5. He says he is confident about his shot and just needs to keep shooting the three-ball. Coach D’Antoni wants the Rockets to play even faster in Game 5. He wants to run and gun and spread the floor and create mismatches all over the court on offense. This means he will go with a small lineup a lot like he did in Game 4 after Nenê was injured.
So the Spurs already know what to expect. The only issue for San Antonio will be how to run the Rockets off the three-point line or at least contest those shots better in Game 5.
The Spurs players seemed to indicate that they would rather have Harden score 43 points and only have 5 assists like he did in Game 3. The Spurs held Houston to just 36.4% shooting for that game and won 103-92. However, Popovich will have the final say in how he wants his squad to play defense in Game 5.
On offense, it would make sense for Popovich to dump the ball inside to Aldridge or Gasol knowing that Houston will go small. It would also make sense to have superstar Kawhi Leonard take the ball to the rack early and often.
Harden started slow in this series, shooting 9-for-30 (30%) over the first two games, averaging 16.5 points per game. However, Harden has picked it up the last two games, averaging 35.5 points per game in those games. His series line sits at 26 points per game, 10.3 assists per game and 3.8 rebounds per game. Williams is showing signs of life with 13 points in Game 4 and he can be the X factor for Houston moving forward.
Leonard is averaging 24.3 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 8.5 rebounds per game for the Spurs. Aldridge has come to life the last two games for the Spurs with 26 points in Game 3 and 16 points in just three quarters in Game 4. San Antonio needs him to keep playing well to win this series as he can present matchup issues for Houston.
I am dropping my play to half a unit just in case the Rockets can repeat what they did in Game 4 with their small-ball lineup. I saw some talk about how the Spurs only had two more rebounds than Houston despite the Rockets smaller lineup. However, my response to that is the Rockets shot 52.6% from the field, so there were fewer rebounds for the Spurs to grab.
The winner of this game will be the team who can impose their will or their style on the other. I am taking the Spurs in a bounce-back spot.
My postseason record: 14-4 (+$865).
My pick:
San Antonio Spurs -5.5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).
Good luck.
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