The Sacramento Kings (8-6) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they go head-to-head with the Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) at FedExForum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Memphis is a 6.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213.5 points.
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction
The Kings will be looking for a similar result after topping the San Antonio Spurs in their last contest, 104-99, as 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (203) came in well under the O/U total of 220. Sacramento’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Kings had a rate of 11.6 (better than their season average of 12.4), while the Spurs posted a mark of 13.8 (above their season average of 10.6). Willie Cauley-Stein played a pivotal role for Sacramento with 13 points and 13 rebounds.
In the Grizzlies’ previous matchup, they edged the Milwaukee Bucks, 116-113, despite being 9.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (229) were well over the projected point total of 213. Memphis’ 11.4 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Milwaukee, who had a mark of 14.7. The Grizzlies’ mark was better than their season average of 12.0. Marc Gasol led Memphis in scoring with 29 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the field.
The aggressive Memphis offense might be getting to the foul line a lot in this showdown. The Grizzlies currently rank fifth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.237, while Sacramento ranks 15th in FTA rate allowed (0.208). It will also be a showdown of opposite tempos as the fast-paced Kings rank fourth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Grizzlies rank 29th.
Sacramento comes into the contest with records of 8-6 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS). There does not appear to be a trend for Kings games in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Memphis is 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. Games involving the Grizzlies tend to finish under the O/U total (61.5 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Grizzlies lost 97-92, unable to cover as 3-point favorites. Mike Conley scored a game-high 27 points and also recorded six rebounds and five assists. The game finished with a total of 189 points, which was 31.5 points below the projected point total of 220.5 points. The Kings had a much better free throw rate (0.253 vs. 0.106) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.4 vs. 23.6).
Kings at Grizzlies Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Sacramento is 4-3 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 1 under.
Memphis is 5-1 ATS at home with 3 overs and 3 unders.
Sacramento is 3-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Memphis is 4-2.
When reaching the century mark, the Grizzlies are 6-2 and the Kings are 7-5.
Memphis ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.3) while Sacramento ranks 26th (52.3).
The Kings rank first in fast break points per game (22.6) while the Grizzlies rank 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (15.3).
Memphis ranks second in steals per game (9.7) while Sacramento ranks 18th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Grizzlies rank 11th in three pointers allowed per game (30.5) while the Kings rank 27th (36.1).
Memphis ranks ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while Sacramento ranks 25th (15.7).
The Grizzlies rank 13th in rebounds allowed per game (44.6) while the Kings rank 29th (49.5).
Memphis ranks second in points off turnovers per game (22.3) while Sacramento ranks 14th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
The Kings average 24.6 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 15th in assists allowed per game (23.6).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, Sacramento is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 101.2 points per game (1.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (2.2 above their season average).
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