The Miami Heat (3-2) clash against the Sacramento Kings (3-3) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, October 29, 2018.
Miami opened as an 8-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 227 points.
Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
The Kings come in on a high note after beating the Washington Wizards in their last outing, 116-112, as 5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (228) were under the projected point total of 236.5. Sacramento won the rebounding battle. The Kings had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. five), defensive rebounds (39 vs. 37) and total rebounds (53 vs. 42). Sacramento was lifted by Nemanja Bjelica, who was the game’s leading scorer with 26 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
The last time the Heat played, they were victorious over the Portland Trail Blazers, 120-111, easily covering as 1.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (231) were over the projected point total of 220. Miami won the rebounding battle. The Heat had 16 offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Trail Blazers had eight and 42, respectively. Goran Dragic was Miami’s leading scorer with 28 points on 10-for-19 shooting.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami should have a considerable edge. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Heat defense ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while the Sacramento offense ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage (0.506).
Sacramento heads into the contest with records of 3-3 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Kings are involved, as 66.7 percent of their games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Games including the Heat also have a tendency to go over the O/U total (60.0 percent).
The Kings won both contests against the Heat last season. In the last matchup, Sacramento won 123-119. The Kings had a better turnover percentage (9.5 vs. 11.5) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.553 vs. 0.505).
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Miami is 28-6 and Sacramento is 19-7.
The Kings are 19-24 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 36-23.
Miami ranks sixth in three pointers allowed per game (27.1) while Sacramento ranks 29th (31.7).
The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Kings rank 25th (4.2).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.2) while Sacramento ranks 19th (23.7).
The Heat rank 17th in rebounds per game (43.8) while the Kings rank 28th (41.2).
Sacramento ranks 18th in fast break points per game (11.1) while Miami ranks 26th (9.8).
The Kings average 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Heat rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
Miami ranks 24th in second chance points per game (11.4) while Sacramento ranks 25th (11.3).
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