The Denver Nuggets (36-30) take on the Sacramento Kings (21-45) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 11, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Kings’ last game, they topped the Orlando Magic, 94-88. Sacramento out-rebounded Orlando. The Kings had more offensive rebounds (13 vs. five), defensive rebounds (37 vs. 29) and total rebounds (50 vs. 34). Sacramento was lifted by Kosta Koufos, who contributed 18 points and 13 rebounds.
The Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game, 125-116. The Nuggets made 26 of their 30 free throws (86.7 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 13.4). Jamal Murray was Denver’s leading scorer with 22 points on 5-for-12 shooting.
The offensive glass could be a major advantage for Denver in this showdown. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.0 percent), while Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent). Also, the Kings, who rank 30th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.144), could struggle to get to the line against the Nuggets, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.174).
Sacramento comes into the game with records of 21-45 straight up (SU) and 30-33-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Kings games, with 35 overs compared to 30 unders.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 36-30 SU and 30-33-3 ATS. Vegas is extremely accurate when setting the total of Nuggets games, with an even split between overs and unders.
The Nuggets lead the season series against the Kings two games to one, but dropped their most recent game, 106-98. Denver was unable to cover as an 8.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 204 points, which was just 1.5 points below the projected point total of 205.5 points. Sacramento had a much better turnover percentage (8.1 vs. 22.7). Denver, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (15-21; 71.4 percent). Willie Cauley-Stein was a standout player in the game, producing 17 points and seven steals.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Sacramento is 15-15-3 ATS on the road with 17 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
Denver is 18-16-1 ATS at home with 18 unders and 17 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Sacramento is 13-5.
The Kings are 15-18 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 30-21.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (24.8) while Sacramento ranks 26th (21.3).
The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Kings rank 21st (43.8).
Denver ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.4) while Sacramento ranks 28th (23.6).
The Kings rank sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (47.2).
Sacramento ranks 12th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while Denver ranks 29th (18.9).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.9) while the Kings rank 20th (11.6).
Sacramento averages 8.2 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Denver ranks 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Nuggets rank seventh in fast break points per game (13.8) while the Kings rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.3).
Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Sacramento ranks 26th (4.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Sacramento is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 7.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (5.3 above their season average).
*****
