The Indiana Pacers will see the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night and it mostly comes to them whether they’ll trick them or treat them. The visitors don’t have enough talent to win on the road, but the Pacers have to be careful and not get complacent after a good, but a lucky win over the Spurs.
Kings at Pacers
Spread: Indiana -6 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 209 points (-110)
Joerger goes with the youth and it backfires
George Hill and Zach Randolph sat out Sunday’s game against Washington for rest. It was a right thing to do for Kings youngs development, and neither had been playing well, so it’s good for the players as well. It was not good for the fans. The younger looking Kings were never in the game, sleepwalking from the very start of an early tip-off 110-83 loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday.
DeAaron Fox and Skal Labissiere replaced the vets, and Bogdan Bogdanovic got the start instead of fellow rookie Justin Jackson, but the new starting lineup quickly fell behind 13-0 and never threatened. They were afraid, they were confused and lackadaisical out there and trailed by as much as 37 in losing the fourth consecutive game. The idea that Fox learns how to play without the protective net of having George Hill playing against the rival starting point guard backfired. Fox scored a season-low two points on 1 for 8 shooting and committed four turnovers, clearly being outmatched by John Wall. The Kings tried to go up and down and score a lot of points, but they shot just 39 percent and only Bogdanovic helped this number by going 7-of-9 from the field. Sloppy play led to 20 turnovers, many of which fueled transition basket of the Wizards. The Kings didn’t do well on the defense either. They allowed 50 percent of treys to be hit and only due to the mercy of Brooks resting his starters for most of the second half, this game didn’t turn to the worst defeat in Sacramento history.
Joerger is not trying to throw the youngs to the Wolves, so after a terrible outcome of this experiment, it’s likely that the Kings coaching staff carefully picks next time they want to try and see if there’s progress. Bogdanovic might stick with the first unit, as he has a poise of a veteran, having played in pressure situations overseas, but he alone can’t solve the Kings troubles with inefficiency.
Place: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 31st, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Fox Sports Indiana, NBCSCA
Sabonis and Oladipo carry the Pacers in a win
The Indiana Pacers are making conscious decision to push the ball against any defense, so a win in a game when the other side took most of their basketball from them is a double positive. The Pacers downed San Antonio 97-94 in a tightly contested game on Sunday, and it was a pair of new faces who had earned them the win.
Young Pacers tried to take advantage of the aging Spurs by pushing the ball early on and it worked. They jumped up in front 12-5 in the first three minutes, prompting coach Popovich to call a timeout and remove four starters from the game. The onslaught continued for a few more minutes as Indy scored 21 points before a half of the first quarter was done. However, overly excited Oladipo picked up two clumsy fouls and Domantas Sabonis followed with two of his own, and the foul trouble of their two primary offensive weapons took all the rhythm from the Pacers. The Spurs established their inside game and slowed down the game by strong offensive rebounding, and the Pacers never regained control of the game. Still, they wouldn’t give in, down by 9 in the fourth quarter, the Pacers came out strong in the clutch. Oladipo scored 23 points on 7-of-14 shooting and knocked down a step-back 3-pointer with 10 seconds left to give them the lead and the win, and Sabonis was perfect from the field, 9-of-9 for 22 points and 12 rebounds as the Pacers edged the Spurs with a better finish. Bojan Bogdanovic was 3-for-3 from the downtown in the first half, and this helped Pacers keep the lead when the Spurs looked to turn the game around. He cooled off, but it was still easily the most he contributed this season.
Myles Turner did not play again, he’s still under the mandatory NBA concussion control system and he probably won’t be ready for this game either. Despite a career game from Sabonis, Turner was badly missed on the defensive glass.
Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers Game Trends & Prediction
Four losses in a row now for the Sacramento Kings, and no covers on them. Real bad streak for both the organization and the punters trying to bet them against the spread. Overall, they are 2-4 against the spread. They weren’t this consistent when it comes to total points. On some night, they score and on the others, they can’t make them drop. The defense hasn’t been present in most games, but they kept Dallas and Denver under 100, and Houston to just 105 points. More recently, their defense doesn’t hold up. Still, they are 2-4 against the over/under this season.
The Pacers covered with an underdog win against the Spurs, improving to 4-2 ATS this season. They aren’t very consistent themselves, trading good and bad games on the last week and more. They try to push the tempo, but lack of firepower dooms over attempts on occasion. So far, Indiana went 3-3 against the over/under.
Admi-Rank: Indiana has shown more this season and has created a little bit of separation compared to the Sacramento Kings. Teams are not likely to enter any serious discussion about the playoffs, but Pacers aren’t too far behind if they can improve their performances over the next month. The Kings are speeding in a wrong direction.
This is a perfect game to hunt for the pace-based overs. The Kings couldn’t top 100 in a few games, and the Pacers scoring was down for the bad percentages and the Spurs-imposed slo-mo, so both of these teams will feast on each other’s desire to maximize the number of possessions.
I’m going for a double bet here as the books have been kind with only a 6-point Indiana handicap and a low line of 209 points. The overs are self-explanatory from the previous part of this review. The spread is admittedly a bit tight on the value, as I’m setting it to a low 7 or high 6.5, but I’m trying to beat the trend here. It’s obvious that Indy’s got something going, and that the Kings aren’t ready to compete, so I’m not going to be deterred from taking the some favorite here.
My Pick: Indiana -6 (-110)
Total: over 209 points (-110)
