The Miami Heat (27-20) take on the Sacramento Kings (14-33) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
Miami is a 10.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 200.5 points.
Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
In the Kings’ last outing, they beat the Orlando Magic, 105-99. The Kings forced 17 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 21.7). Willie Cauley-Stein played well for Sacramento, finishing with 21 points, nine rebounds and five blocks.
The Heat were beaten by the Houston Rockets in their last matchup, 99-90. Houston’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Miami. The Rockets had a rate of 0.148 (below their season average of 0.235), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.061 (below their season average of 0.175). With 22 points on 11-for-16 shooting, Hassan Whiteside was Miami’s leading scorer.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Miami ranks 28th in possessions per game (96.7) and Sacramento is 25th (97.1).
Sacramento holds records of 14-33 straight up (SU) and 19-25-3 against the spread (ATS). Kings games have a slight tendency to finish over the total (51.1 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 27-20 SU and 22-23-2 ATS. Heat games tend to go under the O/U total (55.3 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Cauley-Stein (16.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.8 steals) has been great for the Kings while Josh Richardson (14.0 points, 4.2 assists and 1.8 steals) has contributed greatly to the Heat.
After the Heat won both matchups against the Kings last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the most recent game, Miami won 107-102. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (24.1 vs. 11.1) and had a much better free throw rate (0.347 vs. 0.179).
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Sacramento is 10-13-3 ATS on the road with 13 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
At home, Miami is 6-13-2 ATS with 11 unders, 9 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 15-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Sacramento is 9-4.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Kings are 10-11 and the Heat are 20-7.
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.7) while Sacramento ranks 28th (31.4).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.1) while the Kings rank 24th (24.1).
Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.2) while Sacramento ranks 25th (4.1).
The Heat rank 20th in rebounds per game (42.0) while the Kings rank 27th (40.3).
Sacramento ranks 22nd in second chance points per game (11.3) while Miami ranks 28th (10.1).
The Kings rank seventh in steals per game (8.4) while the Heat rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
Sacramento ranks 24th in fast break points per game (9.4) while Miami ranks 28th (7.5).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Sacramento is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.8, down from 8.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 101.6 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (3.2 above their season average).
