The No.2-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-5) and No.7-seeded New Mexico State Aggies (23-10) get together in the first round of the NIT tournament at McKeon Pavilion. Action gets underway at 11:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 15 and can be seen on ES2 and ES3.
The Gaels fell to Gonzaga 85-75 in the 4 of the West Coast tournament. Emmett Naar was the game’s high scorer, recording 25. The Aggies, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the bitter 57-54 loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the 3 of the Western Athletic tournament. Tanveer Bhullar played well, recording his second double-double of the season with 13 points and 11 rebounds.
Over the last five games, Dane Pineau has been playing at a high level for the Gaels, averaging 15.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Saint Mary’s ranks 30th in the nation in defensive efficiency (97.8), while New Mexico State is ninth (93.8). Moreover, the Aggies are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 14th in OR% at 36.1%. But the Gaels rank 26th at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 73.9%.
The Gaels are hoping to build on their records of 27-5 Straight Up (SU) and 17-11 Against The Spread (ATS). Saint Mary’s is the most disciplined team in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.77. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Gaels, who have allowed only 5.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
On the other side, the Aggies head into the game with records of 11-7 ATS and 23-10 SU. The Aggies have controlled the glass with an average of 41.3 rebounds per game, ninth in the country.
With the Gaels’ last win against the Aggies, their SU record is now 3-0 over New Mexico State. Furthermore, with a 3-0 record, Saint Mary’s has the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – NMSt, ATS Winner – NMSt
Notes
“St. Mary’s is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home”.
“St. Mary’s is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games “.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have the top-ranked offense this season, averaging 122.0 points per 100 possessions. The New Mexico State Aggies have one of the best defenses, allowing 93.8 points in the same number of possessions (ranked ninth).
The New Mexico State Aggies average 67.0 possessions per game and 1.071 points per possession. The Saint Mary’s Gaels earn fewer possessions with 61.4, but they score more points with 1.220.
Saint Mary’s has an average effective field goal percentage of 59.2%, ranked first in the nation. New Mexico State is undefeated (1-0) when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels average 21.0 three point attempts per game, and the New Mexico State Aggies attempt 15.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Saint Mary’s is 16-3 and New Mexico State is 4-1.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels top the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.77. Conversely, the New Mexico State Aggies have a poor A/TO of 1.03 (ranked 185th).
Ranked ninth in the nation, New Mexico State averages 41.3 rebounds per game. Saint Mary’s ranks lower at 229th with 35.2 RPG.
The New Mexico State Aggies rank 76th in offensive rebounds. The Saint Mary’s Gaels rank 110th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Saint Mary’s forces a turnover rate of 15.8%. When New Mexico State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 16-7 record.
