The Houston Rockets (52-14) welcome the San Antonio Spurs (37-29) in a matchup that pits great offense against exceptional defense. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, March 12, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets Betting Prediction
The Spurs are trying to rebound after their 104-94 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. Oklahoma City’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Thunder had a rate of 0.186 (below their season average of 0.188), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.047 (below their season average of 0.188). Rudy Gay led San Antonio in scoring with 14 points on 7-for-14 shooting.
In the Rockets’ last matchup, they won big over the Dallas Mavericks, 105-82. Houston’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Dallas. The Rockets had a rate of 0.565 (above their season average of 0.555), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.378 (below their season average of 0.516). With 24 points, 12 assists and five rebounds, Houston’s Chris Paul had a good game.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the high-powered offense of Houston (second in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 114.0) takes on the elite defense of San Antonio (third in the league with a defensive efficiency of 103.0).
San Antonio holds records of 37-29 straight up (SU) and 32-30-4 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Spurs’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 52-14 SU and 34-30-1 ATS. Games featuring the Rockets also have a slight tendency to finish under the total (52.3 percent).
The Rockets have won both matchups against the Spurs this season, including an 11-point victory the last time these teams met. Houston covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 193 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 208.5 points. Houston had a much better turnover percentage (9.0 vs. 15.0). San Antonio, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.5 vs. 15.9). James Harden put up a double-double in the victory with 28 points and 11 assists.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, San Antonio is 15-17-3 ATS with 21 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
At home, Houston is 12-18-1 ATS with 17 overs and 14 unders.
Houston is 24-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while San Antonio is 25-10.
The Rockets are 50-11 when they score more than 100 points, while the Spurs are 30-10.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.2) while San Antonio ranks 27th (24.3).
The Rockets rank second in steals per game (8.7) while the Spurs rank 20th (7.4).
San Antonio ranks 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.6) while Houston ranks 28th (48.0).
The Spurs rank fourth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Rockets rank 18th (4.6).
Houston ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while San Antonio ranks 11th (42.5).
The Rockets rank sixth in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while the Spurs rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.4).
Houston averages 11.5 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. San Antonio ranks 17th in fast break points allowed per game (12.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, San Antonio is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Spurs have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points in their last five games. For the season, San Antonio has defeated opponents by an average of 2.7 points.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 113.0 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (0.7 below their season average).
—–
