The Miami Heat (4-5) square off with the San Antonio Spurs (6-3) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 7, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Free Prediction
The Spurs are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites in their 117-110 loss to the Orlando Magic in their last matchup. The combined points for the game (227) came in well over the O/U total of 207. Orlando’s 7.5 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over San Antonio, who had a rate of 10.0. The Magic’s mark was better than their season average of 11.1. DeMar DeRozan was San Antonio’s leading scorer with 25 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
The last time the Heat played, they were victorious over the Detroit Pistons, 120-115, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (235) came in well over the O/U total of 219.5. The Heat had a better free throw rate (0.204 vs. 0.173), while the Pistons had a turnover percentage of 14.7 (above the 11.0 mark opponents have averaged against Miami this season). Josh Richardson was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 11-for-21 shooting from the field.
The Spurs won both matchups against the Heat last season. In the last contest, San Antonio won 117-105. The Spurs had a much better turnover percentage (10.6 vs. 18.9) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.3 vs. 20.0).
San Antonio heads into the contest with records of 6-3 straight up (SU) and 5-4 against the spread (ATS). Matchups featuring the Spurs have typically finished over the total (66.7 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS. Games involving the Heat also have typically gone over the projected point total (77.8 percent).
It will be a matchup of contrasting paces as the fast-breaking Heat will look to push the slower-paced Spurs. Dating back to last season, the Heat rank eighth in possessions per game while the Spurs are 20th. Also, the Spurs rank first in turnover percentage (12.8 percent), while the Heat rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.8 percent).
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
San Antonio is 35-11 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 28-6.
The Spurs are 43-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 37-26.
Miami ranks second in blocks per game (5.5) while San Antonio ranks 23rd (5.3).
The Spurs rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Heat rank 24th (16.2).
Miami ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while San Antonio ranks 27th (24.3).
The Spurs rank 10th in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Heat rank 26th (12.5).
Miami ranks 13th in fast break points allowed per game (11.1) while San Antonio ranks 28th (13.1).
The Heat rank 17th in points in the paint per game (44.7) while the Spurs rank 26th (43.4).
Miami ranks fifth in rebounds per game (43.8) while San Antonio ranks 14th (44.0).
The Spurs average 22.8 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Heat rank 12th in assists allowed per game (21.5).
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