The Memphis Grizzlies will have an opportunity to avenge the recent loss to the San Antonio Spurs as two sides will meet again in a home-and-home set. This will also be the first home game for the Grizzlies since they’ve made a coaching change. They are desperate to snap the losing streak, while the Spurs want to improve their away record.
Spurs at Grizzlies
Spread: San Antonio -4 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over/under 193.5 points (-110)
San Antonio tops Memphis behind Aldridge’s brilliance
The San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is among the most honest people in the NBA, so when he said that his team would be lost if not for their terrific power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, it was not just the change of heart, it was the naked truth.
Aldridge continued his phenomenal season by scoring 41 points against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night, leading his team to 104-95 victory. It was the most points he scored in Spurs jersey and he did it with great efficiency. Aldridge shot 17-of-24 and was perfect from three-point range and free throw line, a part of a 50.7 percent shooting night of the Spurs. They connected on 40 percent of long balls and committed just 12 turnovers. Parker started again and played 18 productive minutes – he scored 10 points and dished 5 assists, feeding Aldridge on the pick-and-rolls/pops. Mills also spilled him well during his bench time, scoring 13 points and dishing out 5 assists of his own. Kyle Anderson was the only other Spurs player in double figures, with 10. The game was played at Spurs, halfcourt prevalent pace, and they’ve controlled the outcome for most of the second half.
Getting Parker is huge for the Spurs, mentally, but also basketball-wise. Leonard is also progressing, but his return is anticipated closer to Christmas.
Place: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Date/Time: Friday, December 1st, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSN
The Grizzlies fire Fizdale, but can’t change their fortunes
Only a day after Fizdale left Marc Gasol on the bench in a tight game, one that has resulted in the eighth consecutive loss, the Memphis Grizzlies decided they’ve seen enough of his actions. Fizdale said that it was a coaching decision made in a flow of a game, and Gasol later dismissed any speculation that this incident triggered the sacking, but whatever it is, the Grizzlies will be better without him. His decision making, game preparation, and stubbornness led to the loss of team identity, uncomfortable rotations and general chaos. The injuries only fueled the fire. J.B. Bickerstaff replaced him in the last game, one that Memphis lost 95-104 in San Antonio, but he’s probably just a temporary solution.
As many times before, the team has responded well to seeing back of the coach they were not getting along too well. They ran into a red-hot LaMarcus Aldridge and an opponent that rarely loses at home, so even with the losing streak extending to nine, they can be happy with the fight they put in playing severely shorthanded. Memphis was without Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Mario Chalmers and Brandan Wright, but never trailed by more than 15 points. Working with a patched-up starting lineup of Evans-McLemore-Gasol-Green-Brooks the Grizzlies found the range of three-pointers, connecting on half of the attempts (11-of-22). It was much tougher to work inside, as the Spurs ‘trees’ closed approach to the rim, yet they’ve managed to make up for the 24-of-55 shooting inside the three-point line by getting 11 offensive rebounds. Without a true playmaker, the offense ran through Marc Gasol, and the Spurs knew it would. He finished with 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. When in trouble, the Memphis went to Evans to create for himself, but he couldn’t always score in traffic. He did lead the team with 22 points but needed 17 shots to pull it out, and committed 4 turnovers. Memphis finished with 17 giveaways, not a good number, but a bearable considering the low number of minutes this unit played together. On the other hand, they forced just 12 TOs of the Spurs and let Aldridge go off for 41 points.
Chalmers and Parsons missed the previous game with minor injuries, and Wright is nearing a return, so the Grizzlies might get all of them or some of them back for the reprise, but Conley is still weeks away from resuming basketball activities.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies Game Trends & Prediction
The Spurs won three in a row and are the first team to win 10 games at home, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to much ATS success. They’ve covered only once in four games (although you likely made a profit if you grabbed them early on Wednesday), and are a plain 10-10-1. The bad comes on the road – San Antonio has gone 2-7 ATS when they leave their town. The reason for this is that they forget how to score as soon as they board the plane – the Spurs are 9-12 against the over/under overall but 2-7 away from home.
After eight consecutive ATS losses to match the straight-up record, the last game officially counts as a push, as the market closed at +9. However, most of the bets were placed on the 8.5-point spread, so the outcome is somewhat misleading. The Grizzlies are still not recommended to trust to, as they’ve gone just 6-13-1 against the spread this season. The game was also an over, despite being played at a snail’s pace, as both teams realization ratio was high. It snapped five unders in a row and improved their O/U record to 6-13-1. However, the Grizzlies are just 2-9 at home.
Admi-Rank: Since the last game of the two played out as it was supposed to, the ranks of both Spurs and Grizzlies remain undisturbed. The Grizzlies had sunk previously, so there’s quite a large difference between the sides right now.
It comes down to whether the Grizzlies will have the injured players at their disposal, as they are simply too thin to win against the Spurs, even at home, without them. The Spurs have fought some road demons in the last win in Charlotte, so it may be a sign of better days on the road for them. As long as Aldridge is performing at such a high level, they are the team to beat in this matchup.
The books agree, setting the Spurs as a 4-point road favorite in this one, which goes in line with the spread set in the last game. The latest team news say that Chalmers will play, so this will give the Grizzlies a more conventional look in the starting five, but doesn’t change the balance much, as he’s been playing poorly in the last two weeks. The spread gives a slight value on the home side, but this is not what I’m after. I’m interested in the total points play, as the line has been set to 193.5. That less than in Texas, and while the pace was truly slow, that line was still eclipsed. It’s again valuable on the over side, so ride this rodeo with me.
My Pick: (no wager on the spread)
Total: Over 193.5 points (-110)
