The Boston Celtics will host the San Antonio Spurs on the first day of the third week. It’s been tumultuous ride so far for contending teams, and despite some hiccups, both coaching staffs can be proud of how the teams responded to injuries. A win in this game would further boost both teams, and yet, it’s not going to come easy.
Spurs at Celtics
Spread: Boston -3 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 199 points (-110)
The Spurs look to bounce back with better games in Indy and Boston
San Antonio plays Indiana and Boston on consecutive nights after an eye-catching blowout loss in Orlando. The Spurs are usually successful on road trips and have won two of three games playing away from home this season. Playing without their MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard since the start of the season, and point guard Tony Parker, the Spurs have enjoyed good results so far. Mostly to accommodate disgruntled big man LaMarcus Aldridge, they’ve worked hard to change their offense and give him a more prominent role, and one he’s more comfortable with. It worked well. Without Leonard, the Spurs are playing off him and his ability to draw double teams.
Apart from that, and Danny Green again looking as a legitimate NBA starter, the Spurs have used an approach by committee. Some nights, the youngs step in, on others, the veterans. As long as they play focus defense, they give themselves a chance to win, and experienced as they are, the Spurs usually make the best of such opportunities. In the first two weeks of this season (not counting the game in Indiana), the Spurs have scored only 99.8 points per game (a stat that is somewhat misleading due to small sample susceptibleness to extremes), but allowed only 97.4 ppg. They are usually better than this, but the numbers got skewed with a 27-point loss to the Magic. The offensive issues can be attributed by shots simply not falling for the Spurs, at least not from the outside. Despite opening up good looks, the shooters have hit below 30 percent of the shots from the deep, worse than just one team in the league so far. The Spurs are usually among top 5 in this category.
On top of not having Leonard and Parker available, the Spurs are also missing rumbling backup center Joffrey Lauvergne, who might not play tonight in Indiana and is thus questionable to dress against the Celtics.
Place: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Date/Time: Monday, October 30th, 2017. 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBATV
The Celtics win 4 in a row
If you had any doubt on what going to happen with the Celtics after Hayward went down, the recent winning streak should have removed it. The Boston Celtics have won four games in a row, three of which on the road against Eastern Conference playoff teams (or wannabes). On Saturday, they won in Miami, 96-90, after leading the entire second half.
The Heat were playing without Whiteside, but it’s still a quality win on the road. The Celtics are doing it with defense. It was a part that was missing last year with Thomas. Irving is not the greatest ball stopper either, but coach Stevens managed to find a way to mask it. In the four wins, the most points Boston gave up is 92, and they only surrendered 102 in Cleveland and 108 in Milwaukee in the opening losses. Offensively, they leave a lot to be desired due to the low percentage of shots hit, much like their next opponent San Antonio. They are versatile though, and this helps them make up for players’ bad shooting nights. Kyrie Irving is growing more comfortable leading his new team, and he’s now averaging 21.3 points per night. Horford is playing his all-around game and him and the two young guns provide the best support with all scoring 15 points per game on average. Smart and Rozier have been terrific in their roles of the bench. As a team, the Celtics score in the bottom third of the league, both adjusted for or unadjusted for the pace. They are only 26th by field goal percentage, so you can expect them to improve on the nightly average of 100.5 points.
With Spurs coming to Beantown with two towering post players, the Celtics are likely to continue starting Aaron Baynes alongside Horford. It has worked well for them and gives them more parity in battle on the glass. Morris remains sidelined, but other than that, the Celtics are coming in healthy.
San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics Game Trends & Prediction
Not counting the game in Indiana, the San Antonio Spurs are 3-2 against the spread and 2-3 in the total points market. They’ve beaten the Celtics eleven consecutive times, and are 9-2 ATS over this stretch.
I’ve said it before, and it’s becoming more obvious by the 5-1 record against the spread – these Celtics are undervalued. While they have a very good roster, excellent coach and big tradition, there’s a general feeling that they aren’t proved much yet. While it lasts, you’ll be able to profit on their good streaks. They are also doing it on the defensive end, making it less flashy for the public eyes, and this has also resulted in 1-5 O/U record this season.
Admi-Rank: The Spurs ranking entering the third week depends a lot on the outcome of the Indiana game, as it will allow us to file loss in Orlando under ‘unexpected occurrences’ or ‘bad moon rising’. Boston is only slightly below the Spurs in the rankings at this moment, so this figures to be a close match.
It’s still early in the season, and NBA teams have been given clear guidelines on not resting their players in high-profile meetings, but I don’t think coach Popovich cares. If he feels that some of his elders would need a break on the second night of the back to back, he’ll leave him out of this game, so this is something that needs to be considered. On the other hand, prime candidates for rest, Gasol, and Ginobili don’t have the same kind of impact like they used to.
The Celtics will be amped up to put an end to the losing streak against this opponent, and catching them on the tail end of a back-to-back, at home, shorthanded, they must see it as a perfect opportunity to jump on them right from the start. They are just a small jolly at the market opening, but you can expect early punters to move it up a bit. I’m going with Boston -4.5, so I’m punting the home team here. The total is set at 199 points and that’s a little tight on the over side. My number is 202.5 so I’ll be keeping an eye on the line movement with hopes of getting at least 198 at -110.
My Pick: Boston -3 (-110)
Total: (no bet on the total at this moment, minimum price is over 198 -110)
