The Golden State Warriors go head-to-head against the San Antonio Spurs at ORACLE Arena to open the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 14, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 209.5 points with Golden State opening as an 8.5-point favorite.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Prediction
The Warriors have won three out of four against the Spurs this season, but dropped their most recent game, 89-75. Golden State covered as an 8-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 164 points, which was 36.5 points below the projected point total of 200.5 points. The Spurs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (24.4 vs. 5.1) and had a better turnover percentage (13.3 vs. 15.6). LaMarcus Aldridge recorded a double-double with 33 points and 12 rebounds.
This matchup pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Golden State ranks second in offensive efficiency and San Antonio ranks fourth in defensive efficiency.
San Antonio comes into the contest with records of 47-35 straight up (SU) and 41-37-4 against the spread (ATS). Spurs games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (52.4 percent).
Golden State has an excellent 58-24 SU record, but they have trouble covering the spread (33-46-3 ATS). Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders.
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
San Antonio is 15-23-3 ATS on the road with 22 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
At home, Golden State is 15-24-2 ATS with 21 unders and 20 overs.
When allowing below 100 points, Golden State is 15-5 and San Antonio is 32-10.
When scoring over 100 points, the Warriors are 55-15 and the Spurs are 36-14.
San Antonio ranks seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while Golden State ranks 28th (18.6).
The Spurs rank ninth in second chance points per game (13.3) while the Warriors rank last (10.3).
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.3) while San Antonio ranks 22nd (10.3).
The Spurs rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the Warriors rank 27th (8.8).
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.3) while San Antonio ranks 15th (22.8).
The Warriors rank 17th in three pointers attempted per game (28.9) while the Spurs rank 27th (24.1).
San Antonio averages 43.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks 19th in the league. Golden State ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4).
Both of these teams are great at blocking the ball. The Warriors lead the league with 7.5 blocks per game while the Spurs are fourth with 5.6 blocks per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, San Antonio is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Spurs have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. On the season, San Antonio has defeated opponents by an average of 2.9 points.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (6.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.6 points per game (8.1 above their season average).
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