It’s the familiar foes who will square off in the NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semi-finals, fighting for the right to become the true Warriors’ challenger they seemingly were during the regular season. Incredibly, the San Antonio Spurs will meet the division rival Houston Rockets for the first time since 1995, despite the fact that they haven’t missed the playoffs in 20 years. It’s great sign for the Rockets though, as they went to win the championship that season for the last time.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Houston Rockets
The Spurs and the Rockets have played two games very early in the season and only once since Dec 20th, so there isn’t much to judge their match-up on, especially considering that the Rockets have changed their outlook during the season with Beverley recovering from an injury and by adding key reserve Lou Williams. Still, each game was very close and three meetings were decided by a single shot. San Antonio won three times, twice in Houston.
Regular season results:
11/09/16 SAS 99 – HOU 101
11/12/16 HOU 100 – SAS 106
12/20/16 HOU 100 – SAS 102
03/06/17 SAS 112 – HOU 110
Each side have covered twice and the total line was not surpassed in either contest. Only the last encounter was played with full rosters. The Rockets led by as much as 16 in the first half in that one, but saw the Spurs slowly chip away the lead and basically stealing the win.
The Spurs have the home court advantage, so the first two games will be played in San Antonio. The Rockets had two more days to rest and prepare.
NBA Playoffs results and schedule:
Game 1 – HOU @ SAS (Monday 5/01/17, 9:30 PM ET – TNT)
Game 2 – HOU @ SAS (Wednesday 5/03/17, 9:30 PM ET – TNT )
Game 3 – SAS @ HOU (Friday 5/05/17, 9:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Game 4 – SAS @ HOU (Sunday 5/07/17, 9:00 PM ET – TNT)
Game 5 – HOU @ SAS (Tuesday 5/09/17, tbd – TNT, if needed)
Game 6 – SAS @ HOU (Thursday 5/11/17, tbd – ESPN, if needed)
Game 7 – HOU @ SAS (Sunday 5/14/17, tbd – if needed)
Spurs in the rearview mirror
Most teams find their 50-win seasons a success, but it’s business as usual for the Spurs, despite winning more than 60 even with all the late season rest. This was supposed to be a different season, maybe even one in which the Western powerhouse would slip a bit, as they had to see their icon Tim Duncan retire from playing, and the other two parts of the Big Three, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili fighting father time. It was clear that this is going to be the new wave Spurs, led by Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, but the Spurs front office still used the cap space to bolster the frontcourt by adding veterans Pau Gasol and David Lee.
Gasol missed time due to injury, but otherwise the Spurs enjoyed good health. All the young players showed progress, but none more than the 2-time Defender of the Year Kawhi Leonard, who was groomed into a focal player on the offense as well, making him probably the best two way player in the entire NBA. The San Antonio Spurs took the shape of their new leader, playing good offense and great defense this season. Of course, the winning culture, the team play, high basketball intelligence, the respect for the game and exemplary professionalism remain the main characteristics of this team. The Spurs are coming after the rings year in and year out, but still manage to stay out of the direct spotlight.
They’ve beaten another division rival, the Memphis Grizzlies, in the first round of the NBA playoffs with 4-2. Both teams protected their home courts in the first five games of the NBA playoffs, until the Spurs finally took one in Memphis. They were impressive in the first two games and solid in the next four, staying competitive even in the losses. Leonard led the way as usual, but the story of the first round has to be Tony Parker, who has found the fountain of youth and was excellent in the off-the-ball role he had to take.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 45-41-2
Over/under Score: 48-38-2
Rockets in the rearview mirror
It’s been a great season for the Houston Rockets. They’ve been up in the running for the top spot in the West deep into the season and it’s the first time in aged that they’ve been an actual contender and not a mere low-seeded playoff team or worse. Few things contributed to the rise.
First of all, they were quick to recognize that the Harden-Howard matching won’t lead them to the promised land, so they’ve used the cap space to add a couple of prized starters to improve their depth, ultimately adding another good scorer off the bench in the mid-season. Instantly, the Rockets were not just a one man show, despite Harden remaining unchallenged in the pecking order. The other thing was unrelated to what they have done.
The Warriors success with taking an unprecedented number of threes has spurned the league-wide movement towards thinking offense first. This led to a big spike in average points scored, especially during the first half of the season. Plenty of the teams that tried to follow the trend were not really built that way, and Houston was ideally positioned for it, leading to a great start that has instilled confidence and even put Harden on the MVP discussion board.
The Rockets haven’t finished the regular season with much stride, but faced a limited team in the first round of the NBA playoffs. They responded well to the challenge that Westbrook and company posed, winning the NBA Playoffs series in 5. It was far from easy, as they couldn’t find the usual offensive efficiency and suffered from slow starts to the game, but were simply too deep for the one man show on the other side. Harden scored 33.2 points per game, mostly by getting to the free throw line as the field goal shooting was below average.
The Rockets were terrible shooting from the three point territory the entire series. Harden was just 24%, Anderson 12.5% and Ariza 18.8% from beyond the arc and those three attempted 18 threes per game in the series. Gordon, Williams and veteran center Nene stepped up to make up for the bad shooting.
Houston Rockets Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 45-42
Over/under Score: 43-43-1
Matching them up
The Spurs haven’t had much success going with the big lineups against the Houston in the regular season, so it’s fair to expect that Pau Gasol and Dewayne Dedmon will have a diminished role. However, the Spurs still have an advantage inside with Aldridge surely to attack Anderson or either of the Rockets centers. They also have the best outsider defender in the league to put on Harden and Green to spill him off, so they’ll likely try to make other players beat them. There lies the biggest Rockets advantage though. They have a better depth and more scoring in the hands of their players. It’ll take increased efficiency across the Spurs roster to match such potency.
Series prediction
Houston in 6. Don’t write the Spurs off, ever. They are positioned well to take this NBA Playoffs series and judging by the numbers, they are and should be favored to advance. Still, I believe that this is the Rockets season. They can play a fair game and win. If they play good, the Spurs won’t be able to stop them. I believe they can win one in AT&T Center and take the NBA playoffs series in six games.
Series MVP
Kawhi Leonard. He’s simply the best player on the court and will be asked to do much on both sides of the court, so his impact is going to be the greatest. If his supporting cast plays their 110%, the Spurs will advance, but even if they don’t it won’t be for the lack of Kawhi.
X-factor
Eric Gordon. Gordon silently played a crucial role in the NBA Playoffs first round series when the Thunder focused on stopping Harden with the ball and will likely have the same role again. He is strong driver that is not intimidated by defensive pivots and is underrated passer. With the shooting threat he has, he could be the key factor in determining how this NBA playoffs series will pan out.
