This week’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) and the San Diego Chargers (3-9) will give the Chiefs a chance to add to their six-game winning streak. This game will feature the NFL’s second-leading passer, Philip Rivers (3,713 yards, 23 TDs). It will begin Sunday, Dec 13 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Kansas City beat San Diego 33-3 in Week 11. With that victory, the Chiefs extended their win streak against the Chargers to three games, dating back to the 2014 season. Spencer Ware had a big performance on the ground in the last game, rushing for 96 yards and two TDs on 11 carries. Corey Liuget led the San Diego defense, totaling five tackles and one sack.
The Chiefs are a considerable seven-point favorite and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 46 points.
The Chiefs enter the game with a current record of 7-5 Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Kansas City had incredible success over the last five games, going 5-0 SU and ATS. Kansas City has seen an increase in scoring in recent weeks when compared to its 26.8 points per game average. Over the past five games they’ve averaged 34 points per game. Look for Kansas City to take advantage of an inferior San Diego run defense, which ranks 26th in the league with 124.6 rushing yards allowed per game. As for the Kansas City defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Chargers may have a difficult time running against the Chiefs. The Chargers average 82.6 yards per game on the ground, 30th in the NFL. One of the keys to the game will be if the Chargers can protect the quarterback against Kansas City’s aggressive pass rush. The defense ranks fifth in the league in sacks with 2.8 per game. San Diego will want to build a solid lead, because the Chiefs are one of the top-scoring teams during the fourth quarter. They’ve averaged 8.8 points in the final quarter this season. On special teams, Kansas City has some playmakers. They average 103.8 return yards per game, second in the NFL.
Moving to the road team, the Chargers have 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS records this season. The Chargers went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over the last five games. San Diego’s offensive strategy is to throw often, averaging 42.1 passing attempts per game. Switching gears to the San Diego defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. The Chargers will face a Kansas City passing game that has not been reliable at home this season. The Chiefs rank 29th in the league with 193.6 home passing yards per game. San Diego tends to run a lot of plays, averaging 68.2 offensive snaps for third-most in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC, O/U – Under
Notes
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home.
Kansas City is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Diego.
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Diego.
San Diego is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Kansas City.
San Diego is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
San Diego is 2-2 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Kansas City is 6-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
Remarkably, Kansas City is winless (0-3) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 7-2 SU when losing the turnover battle.
The Kansas City defense has forced an average of 2.8 turnovers over its last five games. San Diego is only 1-6 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
When it comes to passing this year, San Diego is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its fourth-ranked passing attack will face the 14th-ranked pass defense of Kansas City, while its 21st-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 26th-ranked passing game of the Chiefs.
San Diego has given up 27.2 points per game on the road, which ranks it only 24th in the league. Kansas City has scored 27.8 points per game at home (ranked sixth overall).
