The Navy Midshipmen and the San Diego State Aztecs square off for the opportunity to win the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Tuesday. San Diego State (7-5) has won three of its last four and Navy (7-5) four of its last five. The game starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday and will air on ESPN.
In its last game, San Diego State cruised past San Jose State 38-7. Pumphrey had a big game running the ball in the win, rushing for 261 yards and three TDs on 21 attempts. In its last game, Navy defeated Army 17-10. Tillman had a solid performance for the Midshipmen, totaling two receptions for 48 yards and one TD.
This week’s matchup between the Aztecs and the Midshipmen have even odds and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 55 points. The Aztecs enter the game with records of 7-5 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Aztecs have records of 3-2 both SU and ATS. There is a good chance San Diego State will keep the ball on the ground. They have America’s 25th-ranked home running attack, averaging 243.2 yards per game. As for the San Diego State defense, a few key matchups could decide this game. Expect the Aztecs defense to really restrict Navy’s aerial assault. The Aztecs have the 19th-ranked pass defense in the land and give up only 192 passing yards per game. One of the keys to the game will be if the Midshipmen can protect the ball against the takeaway vultures of the Aztecs, whose defense ranks 20th in the nation with 2.2 turnovers per home game. In the first quarter of home games, San Diego State is tough as nails, putting up 10.3 points in the first 15 minutes.
Across the field, the Midshipmen have 7-5 SU and 5-7 ATS records this season. The Midshipmen went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. Offensively, the Midshipmen have really picked up the pace in the last five games. They have exceeded their season average of 33.1 points per game by averaging 38 during that stretch. The Aztecs may be catching the Midshipmen at the wrong time. They have found their groove on the ground, averaging 349.2 rushing yards during the past five games. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Aztecs to keep up with Navy’s defense in a few areas. Navy’s defense ranks in the top half of the nation for passing yards allowed and will look to bolster its statistics this week against the 106th-ranked passing attack of the Aztecs, which only averages 181.5 yards through the air per game. You probably won’t see much carelessness from Navy that could cost them the game. With an average of only 2.3 per game, they earn the fewest penalties in the country.
Predictions: SU Winner – SDSU, ATS Winner – SDSU, O/U – Under
Notes
San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Diego State’s last 12 games.
Navy is 6-2 SU when leading at the half this season. San Diego State is 5-3 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
San Diego State is 3-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle this year, and only 2-4 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The San Diego State rushing attack is ranked 30th nationally, while the Navy run defense is only ranked 98th. The Midshipmen rushing game is ranked second, compared to the 42nd-ranked run defense of the Aztecs.
