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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 09/07/18

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres will be squaring off against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports San Diego will televise this NL matchup. The game is scheduled to get underway at 6:40 p.m. ET.

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (-155) is favored over San Diego (+145) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at nine runs (-110 for both the over and the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at -150 for the Padres +1.5 runs and +130 for the Reds -1.5 runs.

The Padres are 56-86 SU and have gone 67-74 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 15.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 27.9 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 59-82 SU and 79-61 ATS. They’ve lost 9.6 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.3 units ATS.

Reds games have had an over/under record of 72-64-4 in 2018. San Diego has an over/under record of 66-70-5.

Brett Kennedy is getting the nod for the visiting Padres. Kennedy is 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA and 16 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Reds are going with righty Anthony DeSclafani (7-4, 4.37 ERA), who’s got 79 strikeouts and 23 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.24. DeSclafani did not accrue any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 7.36 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.50, along with a K/9 of 9.94.

The Padres offense has slashed .234/.298/.377 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

San Diego’s offensive production has been led by first baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis. Hosmer is hitting .250/.316/.385 with 13 home runs, 56 RBIs and 63 runs scored. Galvis (.237/.293/.360) is up to 11 homers, 58 RBIs and 51 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.19 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.0 K/9.

The Cincinnati hitters have produced 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game over its last 10 games and 2.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .217/.301/.392 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Reds’ offense has been led by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is hitting .320/.367/.512 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and 82 runs scored, while Peraza’s line is .288/.328/.406 with 10 homers, 46 RBIs, 74 runs and 20 stolen bases.

The Padres have gained 0.6 units and are 51-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over’s hit in 41 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve hit the under against ies.

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The under has hit in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

San Diego has posted 20.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.6 over its last five.

The Padres have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 15 over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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