In the second of a three-game series between the San Diego Padres (53-60) and the Cincinnati Reds (49-61) at Petco Park, Colin Rea (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (3-7, 4.84 ERA) get the start. The Padres won the last game 2-1 and San Diego leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 10:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 11 and will air on FSOH and FSSD.
This is the first start of the season for Rea. Justin Upton (.252, 58 Rs, 20 HRs, 62 RBIs, 18 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Reds were unsuccessful the last time Lorenzen pitched. He went 5.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out five and walking four in a 3-0 loss to the Cardinals.
San Diego, a -120 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Cincinnati. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Padres are 26-23 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -996. They have struggled as the favorite over their last 10 games, going 0-3.
Switching gears, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .355 when playing as the underdog (22-40) and an overall money line of -1,079. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 106 stolen bases. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Cincinnati pitchers. They’ve allowed 3.2 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 4.3. They also allow just 8.0 hits per road game, good for third in the NL.
In their previous four games this season, the Padres have a 3-1 record. This game will feature Lorenzen (RHP) on the mound against the Padres, who have a 40-49 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Rea will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 37-46 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cin, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 40% (17-25) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, San Diego has won 53% (27-24) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Padres have a 14-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 38-16. The Padres have a 39-12 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, San Diego ranks 21st with 438 runs and Cincinnati is 23rd with 427.
Ranking 22nd, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 287 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 340.
When the Padres hit at least one home run, they are 36-22. When the Reds hit at least one homer, they have a 41-29 record.
