The No.2-seeded San Diego State Aztecs square off against the No.4-seeded George Washington Colonials in the fourth round of the NIT tournament at Madison Square Garden. The game begins at 9:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 29 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Aztecs come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, topping Georgia Tech 72-56 in the 3. Trey Kell led all scorers with 18 points on 7-for-12 shooting. The Colonials, meanwhile, are coming off an 82-77 win against Florida in the 3. Tyler Cavanaugh was the game’s top scorer, registering 23 points on 7-for-14 shooting.
Kevin Larsen and Cavanaugh have upped their production over the last five games for the Colonials. Larsen has averaged 14.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers during that stretch, while Cavanaugh has put up 18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. San Diego State ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency (91.4), while George Washington is eighth (102.4). Furthermore, the defense of the Colonials should have an advantage in terms of eFG%. They’re seventh in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 49.2%), while the offense of the Aztecs ranks 270th in eFG% (47.9%).
The Aztecs are hoping to build on their records of 28-9 Straight Up (SU) and 17-13-3 Against The Spread (ATS). San Diego State has been on fire lately, averaging 78.6 points per game, well over their season average of 69.2. The Aztecs will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent defensive struggles. The Aztecs have given up an average of 69.8 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 60.5 PPG. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Aztecs, who allow a Division I-low field goal percentage of only .371.
On the other side, the Colonials have a record of 16-17-1 ATS and 26-10 SU. George Washington has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. The Colonials are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .751 free throw percentage that ranks 20th in Division I. The last 10 games have really brought out the best of the Colonials on the defensive end. They’ve allowed 61.6 points per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 69.3. George Washington’s defense is one of the top in the nation, with opponents shooting only .433 from the field.
San Diego State and George Washington have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – GW, ATS Winner – GW
Notes
George Washington averages 75.9 points per game this season. San Diego State is one of the highest-ranked teams in points allowed, giving up just 60.5 points per game (ranked third).
San Diego State has allowed an average of 60.5 points per home game this season. George Washington averages 72.9 points per away game, ranking 89th in scoring.
The San Diego State Aztecs have the best defense in the country, giving up just 91.4 points per 100 possessions. The George Washington Colonials have the 45th-ranked offense, scoring 112.8 points in the same number of possessions.
The George Washington Colonials average a field goal percentage of 44.7% this season. The San Diego State Aztecs have a winning 2-1 record in games where opponents have a FG% of 44.7% or greater.
The San Diego State Aztecs and the George Washington Colonials both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. San Diego State is 270th and 250th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while George Washington ranks 146th and 137th in these categories.
George Washington ranks 81st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.22. San Diego State is ranked lower at 295th with an A/TO of .87.
San Diego State ranks 56th in rebounds per game with 38.8 and George Washington ranks 81st with 38.0 rebounds per game.
San Diego State ranks 57th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, George Washington ranks 81st.
Though San Diego State is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 18.7% (ranked fourth), George Washington has a solid 9-4 record SU when its TO% is 18.7% or greater.
