The No.7-seeded IPFW Mastodons take on the No.2-seeded San Diego State Aztecs in the first round of the NIT tournament at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl. The game gets underway at 10:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 15 and will air on ES3.
The Aztecs are expecting a better outcome after their 68-63 loss to Fresno State in the 4 of the Mountain West tournament. Winston Shepard was the best player for the Aztecs, recording 15 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. The Mastodons, meanwhile, are coming off a close 69-68 loss at the hands of North Dakota State in the 2 of the Summit League tournament. John Konchar played well for IPFW, accounting for 17 points, seven steals, and four rebounds.
Konchar has upped his play over the last five games for the Mastodons, averaging 16.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 3.2 steals, and 1.0 three-pointer.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. San Diego State is among the nation’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 30th in OR% at 33.8%. Meanwhile, IPFW ranks 25th in the nation at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 74.0%. Also, the Mastodons’s 24th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 114.2) will face off against the fourth-ranked defense of the Aztecs (defensive efficiency of 91.5).
The Aztecs enter the game with records of 25-9 Straight Up (SU) and 14-13-3 Against The Spread (ATS).
In the other locker room, the Mastodons head into the game with records of 21-7 ATS and 24-9 SU.
This game will be the first meeting for San Diego State and IPFW in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – SDSU, ATS Winner – SDSU
Notes
“San Diego State is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home”.
“San Diego State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego State’s last 7 games at home”.
“San Diego State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego State’s last 5 games “.
IPFW lost its last game by a one-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, San Diego State is 4-2. IPFW is 4-3 in close games this season.
IPFW beats San Diego State in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Mastodons average 70.2 possessions and 1.142 points per possession, while the Aztecs average 65.8 possessions with 1.035 points per possession.
The IPFW Mastodons have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking 14th in the country with an eFG% of 55.5%. The San Diego State Aztecs are undefeated with a 2-0 record in games where opponents have a similar or higher eFG%.
The San Diego State Aztecs average 18.0 three point attempts per game, and the IPFW Mastodons attempt 25.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; San Diego State is 10-1 and IPFW is 20-8.
IPFW ranks 67th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.25. San Diego State is ranked lower at 302nd with an A/TO of .85.
San Diego State, the 59th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 38.8 rebounds per game. IPFW does worse, ranked 167th with 36.3.
IPFW ranks 235th in offensive rebounds, while San Diego State ranks at 58th in defensive rebounds.
On average, San Diego State forces a turnover rate of 18.8%. When IPFW turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 5-3 record.
