The San Diego State Aztecs are coming off one of the biggest wins in program history. Last week, they hosted the Stanford Cardinal, who were ranked No. 19 at the time. While the Cardinal was expected to win, San Diego State stunned David Shaw’s team, sending them to their second straight defeat. Stanford had lost to USC the week before and seemed to be feeling a hangover from that. Now San Diego State will try to avoid the same.
When a team wins a big game, it increases its reputation, but that doesn’t mean it is somehow immune to losing as a favored team the following week. This is the kind of test great teams overcome, and the nation will see just how durable and airtight the Aztecs truly are.
Details
Odds: Aztecs -3
Date & Time: Saturday, September 23, 7 PM ET
Location: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Reasons To Bet On The San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs took on and defeated a big-name program. Stanford entered this season having reached the Rose Bowl as the Pac-12 champion in three of the previous five seasons. David Shaw is a highly respected coach, and Stanford struggled last season while still winning 10 games. It was a tall order for the Aztecs to beat the Pac-12 power, but they did. Rashaad Penny is a strong running back who has minimized the impact of losing Donnel Pumphrey to the NFL. Penny can run between the tackles or get outside the corner. He gives San Diego State a player who can attack a defense in many ways and create a strong running game which takes a lot of pressure off his quarterback.
San Diego State also has a strong defense which played a big part in the win over Stanford. The Aztecs limited the Cardinal to just 42 total plays, which is a very low number for a game, especially in this modern era of football. It’s true that Stanford doesn’t use a fast-tempo offense in which getting more plays is a priority, but even then, 42 plays in a game is an average of 10.5 plays per quarter. Assuming a team gets two possessions per quarter (which is small), that’s an average of 5.25 plays over eight possessions. San Diego State allowed just 17 points, most of them coming on big plays Stanford was able to produce in the running game. The Cardinal basically used four big runs for all of their offense, but on 38 other snaps, they were shut down. The SDSU defense is for real.
Reasons To Bet On The Air Force Falcons
The Air Force Academy did not beat Michigan last weekend, but it gave the nationally ranked Wolverines a good run on the road. The Air Force defense allowed only one touchdown to Michigan’s offense, and that came only after Michigan had established a 22-13 lead late in the fourth quarter. Air Force played great red zone defense. The first touchdown Michigan scored was a punt return. If Air Force plays as well on defense against San Diego State as it did against Michigan, it should create a very close game it will have a chance to win late in the fourth quarter.
Also consider that San Diego State played a highly emotional game against Stanford. Being able to bounce back and retain focus will be challenging for the Aztecs. Playing on the road in elevated mountain air could also represent an adjustment for this team.
Outlook
The action on the game has been squarely on Air Force so far. We saw the Aztecs open at -5.5 but the pressure has been on Air Force as they have been bet down to -3. Clearly, bettors are expecting a tight game or an upset.
This game does feel like a relatively close contest marked by solid defense and field position. Air Force will like that the game is close, but San Diego State plays such good defense that the Aztecs will play this game on their terms. San Diego State will win by a touchdown.
Prediction: Aztecs -3
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