The Boise State Broncos (14-3, 4-1 MWC) can extend a 10-game home winning streak when they go head-to-head against the San Diego State Aztecs (11-4, 3-1 MWC) at Taco Bell Arena. The game will air on ESPN2 at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 13, 2018.
Boise State is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 139 points.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Free Prediction
The last time the Aztecs played, they blew out the San Jose State Spartans, 85-49. San Diego State’s 11.4 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over San Jose State, who had a rate of 22.5. The Aztecs’ mark was better than their season average of 15.4, while the Spartans’ was above the 18.5 mark opponents have averaged against San Diego State this season. Jalen McDaniels had a good game for San Diego State, contributing 13 points and seven rebounds.
The Broncos beat the Fresno State Bulldogs in their last game, 70-64. The Broncos knocked down 25 of their 33 free throws (75.8 percent) and held the Bulldogs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.9 (below their season average of 33.1). Chandler Hutchison was the game’s leading scorer with 21 points on 3-for-12 shooting.
Baskets could be hard to come by as a pair of the NCAA’s premier defenses square off. Boise State ranks 13th in defensive efficiency (90.7) and San Diego State is 11th (90.3).
San Diego State heads into the game with records of 11-4 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Aztecs have gone over the projected point total 53.8 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Boise State is 14-3 SU and 10-6 ATS. There does not appear to be a trend for Broncos games in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. McDaniels (12.4 points and 8.4 rebounds) has been great for the Aztecs while Hutchison (23.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Broncos.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Aztecs won the last game 87-68. The Aztecs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (41.9 vs. 17.2) and had a much better free throw rate (0.377 vs. 0.255).
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
San Diego State is 4-3 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 1 under.
At home, Boise State is 6-2 ATS with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Boise State ranks 54th in three pointers attempted per game (25.5) while San Diego State ranks 187th in three pointers allowed per game (23.7).
The Broncos average 40.8 rebounds per game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Aztecs rank 86th in rebounds allowed per game (33.7).
San Diego State ranks 65th in steals per game (7.1) while Boise State ranks 74th in steals allowed per game (5.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, San Diego State is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Boise State is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Aztecs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.8, down from 13.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Broncos have scored an average of 82.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 70.0 points per game (3.9 above their season average).
