The San Diego State Aztecs are entering the DXL Frisco Bowl as underdogs as they prepare to take on the Ohio Bobcats. ESPN will broadcast the action and this Wednesday matchup is scheduled to kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
San Diego State Aztecs at Ohio Bobcats Betting Preview
In this mid-week game, Ohio has been tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Aztecs are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are -155. This tilt should provide several decent live betting scenarios, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.
The less-than-stellar Aztecs have lost 10.2 units so far and are 3-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 4-8. The Bobcats are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-5 ATS and the over has hit in seven of their games.
The Aztecs are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bobcats are 8-4 SU.
San Diego State enters this one on a two-game winning streak while Ohio has dropped each of its last three. The Aztecs hope to get back in stride after a narrow 31-30 defeat to Hawaii on November 24. The passing game left much to be desired as Christian Chapman completed just nine-of-19 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown. Juwan Washington (158 yards on 31 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Kahale Warring (four receptions, 35 yards) and Parker Houston (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Ohio just earned a 49-28 win over Akron. Nathan Rourke completed five-of-14 passes for 87 yards and one interception. Rourke (86 yards on 18 rush attempts, four TDs) and Maleek Irons (126 yards on 18 carries) spearheaded the running game while Papi White (three receptions, 63 yards) and A.J. Ouellette (one catch, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. San Diego State has run the ball on 62.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Ohio has a rush percentage of 64.2. The Aztecs have produced 162 rush yards per game and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bobcats are averaging 262 rush yards per game and have 38 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Bobcats might be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded just 19 sacks while the D-line has registered 22 sacks. The Aztecs offensive line has given up 30 sacks and their defense has created only 24 sacks.
The Aztecs offensive scheme has tallied 192 yards per game through the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Bobcats have put up 209 pass yards per outing and have 24 total pass scores.
San Diego State seems to possess the upper hand in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 95 yards and throw for 233 yards per game. The Ohio defense has allowed 263.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 136.6 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Aztecs have given up an ANY/A of 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats are yielding an ANY/A of 6.79.
Offensively, Chapman has amassed 648 passing yards this year. He’s completed 46-of-74 attempts with three passing scores and one interception. He’s got a 7.11 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.52 over the past two outings.
We expect the San Diego State offense to mix it up in this one. Fred Trevillion, Juwan Washington and Kahale Warring have collectively accounted for 537 total yards and five touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.
In the other locker room, Nathan Rourke has completed 137-of-226 passes for 2,019 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs. Rourke’s ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the season and 5.77 across his last two games.
We’re expecting the Bobcats to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Nathan Rourke (zero receiving yards this season) has chipped in lately, but A.J. Ouellette (946 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 163 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Maleek Irons (739 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the Bobcats’ recent offensive gameplans.
Free Pick: San Diego State Aztecs at Ohio Bobcats
SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
San Diego State has averaged 3.6 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
Ohio has averaged 7.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 7.6 over its last two.
Both teams have lost 10 fumbles this season.
San Diego State has lost five of its last six games SU, with an eight-point victory over New Mexico on November 3rd accounting for the only win over that stretch.
Ohio has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -2-point loss to Miami (OH) on November 7th representing its only defeat over that span.
The Aztecs offense has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bobcats have accounted for seven such plays.
The San Diego State defense has allowed 14 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Ohio has given up 12 such plays.
The San Diego State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Ohio has created 31 such runs.
The Aztecs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bobcats have given up 11 such runs.
The San Diego State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 24 times this season. Ohio has registered 22 sacks.
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