The San Jose State Spartans (6-12) travel to Taco Bell Arena to take on the Boise State Broncos (13-5), the best team in the Mountain West. The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Jan. 20.
The Broncos lost a tough one against San Diego State 56-53 on Saturday. James Webb III recorded 17 points and 11 rebounds, earning his sixth double-double of the year. The Spartans are coming off an 81-74 loss to Fresno State on Saturday. Ryan Welage had a good shooting night, leading the team with 28 points.
Over the last five games, Webb III has been playing at a high level for the Broncos. During that stretch, he has averaged 19.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers.
The aggressive Boise State offense seems poised to dominate from the foul line. It ranks 27th in the nation with a FTA rate of 43.7, while San Jose State is among the nation’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 325th-ranked FTA rate of 44.8).
Boise State is a heavy 18-point favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is set at 146 points. The Broncos enter the game with records of 13-5 Straight Up (SU) and 8-7-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Broncos are an exceptional shooting team from the line with 17.0 free throws made per game, one of the highest marks in Division I. San Jose State has a habit of getting in foul trouble (21.8 fouls per game), so expect the Broncos to get a number of opportunities from the free throw line.
On the other side, the Spartans fare well ATS, sitting at 10-5. However, they are only 6-12 SU. While San Jose State has gone 6-2 ATS over its past 10 matchups, they’ve struggled SU with a record of 2-8.
This is the first meeting of the season for these conference rivals. The last time they played, Boise State came out on top, bringing its SU record to 9-1 over San Jose State in their most recent games. Additionally, Boise State leads the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Boise State held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times in the last five games, while San Jose State wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Boise, ATS Winner – Boise, O/U – Over
Notes
Boise State is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boise State’s last 10 games.
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State’s last 5 games when playing San Jose State.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State’s last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose State.
Boise State holds a 4-1 SU record against the Mountain West Conference this season, while San Jose State has an underachieving 1-5 SU record against the conference.
San Jose State averages 74.4 points per game, placing the team just 162nd in the nation. Boise State ranks 86th in points allowed, giving up 67.2 points per game.
Ranked 63rd, the Boise State Broncos have an offensive rating of 112.0. The San Jose State Spartans rank 206th with a defensive rating of just 103.8.
The San Jose State Spartans average 72.0 possessions per game and 1.034 points per possession. The Boise State Broncos earn fewer possessions with 69.0, but they score more points with 1.120.
San Jose State has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.1%. Boise State is an even 4-4 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, Boise State attempts 24.0 three pointers and San Jose State attempts 22.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Boise State Broncos have a formidable 11-3 record while the San Jose State Spartans have a poor 3-9 record.
Boise State ranks 91st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.21. San Jose State is ranked lower at 137th with an A/TO of 1.12.
On average, San Jose State forces a turnover rate of 18.4%. When Boise State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 4-2 record.
