The first part of the German Bundesliga is entering its final month of competition and they’re going to speed up the tempo a little bit, same as we will. There are four more rounds before the winter break and the opening duel of the next one will take place at Schwarzwald-Stadium in Freiburg between the hosts that will try to record their second straight home win and the Red-Shorts from the north. Last week, Freiburg managed to defeat FSV Mainz squad 2:1, while HSV outscored the wounded Hoffenheim squad (3:0), the team that faced some disappointment last midweek in the UEFA Europa League as they were eliminated from the competition.
It’s time to get your piggy bank out of shape so let’s take a closer look and find some notable picks.
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV
Three-Way: 1: SC Freiburg +161; X: +240 Draw; 2: Hamburger SV +216 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread 0: SC Freiburg -122; Hamburger SV +125
Total +2.5: Over +112; Under -118
SC FREIBURG
In last round SC Freiburg squad recorded their only second victory of the season, snapping a five-game winless streak during which they recorded four losses. It’s obvious now that this team is not the same it was last year although the roster seems to have same ingredients but with certain injury and low-form issues. One of the European competitions’ spots are very far and the battle for survival is this season’s reality for the team from black forest. Hopefully, they’ll manage to stay in the top-tier of German soccer but it’s not unusual for the squads that started the season on the international scene to get relegated at the end of it.
Currently, they rank below the relegation line at No. 16 spot in the league table with 11 points and a 2-5-6 record (2-4-1 at home). They score 0.69 and concede 1.92 goals per match and they’ve conceded at least one goal in 71% of their home games, while on the other side 78% of their goals scored occurred at home too. 54% of their overall duels had over 2.5 goals in total and they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in each of their last seven showdowns. One-third of their scored and conceded goals occurred in the last 15 minutes of the game. Both teams scored in 46% of their matches and the most common scores at home were 1:1 and 0:0 draws (both occurred twice).
Coach Streif mostly uses the 3-4-3 scheme with Gunter and Stenzel operating down the flanks with both defensive and offensive assignments while Kempf, Schuster, and Koch start at centre-back spots. Hofler and Haberer are in charge of the midfield while Petersen, Tarrazzino, and Kaputska operate up front. Florian Niederlechner and Nils Petersen top the team in scoring with two goals each while Janik Haberer, Bartosz Kaputska, Florian Kath, Caglar Soyuncu and Pascal Stenzel all have one each in their accounts. Nicolas Hofler along with Haberer recorded team-high two assists each at the moment while passing segment belongs to Julian Schuster with 451 total passes recorded. Goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow has 232 shots against, 50 saves and three clean-sheet games so far. Defender Caglar Soyuncu has team-high three yellow cards and one red card so far.
Marc-Oliver Kempf (thigh) and Mike Frantz (knee) are expected to be out until at least February next year while Aleksandar Ignjovski’s (calf) and Onur Bulut’s (back) status is unknown. Amir Abrashi (ankle), Philipp Lienhart (knee), Vincent Sierro (hamstring) and Georg Niedermeier (back) are all day to day while Jonas Meffert (foot) and Manuel Gulde (back) are back in training.
HAMBURGER SV
The team from the north of the country recorded the same number of wins in last three rounds (two) as it did in first eleven rounds. After a maximum of six points earned in August, they’ve sunk into the eight-game winless streak that ended two weeks ago with a home win over Stuttgart. With the last week’s 3:0 home win over Hoffenheim, HSV looks to be out of the crisis but we’ll see how they are going to perform in last four rounds before the winter break. Another interesting fact is that Hamburger SV has only one draw so far (least in Bundesliga).
The team currently ranks at No. 15 spot, just above the relegation line with 13 points earned, two more than their next opponent. They are 4-1-8 (1-0-5 on the road) and their goal difference is 13-20 (6-13 away). The squad is having some big problems when it comes to the road games as they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in every second road game, including at least one on their current five-game losing streak as visitors. As a matter of fact, they’ve conceded at least two goals or more in every one of those last five matches on the road. 54% of their games had over 2.5 goals in total while both teams scored in every second road matchup. The most common score on the road was a 2:0 loss (occurred twice).
Manager Markus Gisdol is bringing some success to the team lately with the 4-2-3-1 scheme with Santos, Mavraj, Papadopoulos and Diekmeier as defensive linemen and Sakai and Jung in front of them as defensive midfielders. Kostic, Hunt, Wood, and Arp up front have mostly attacking assignments in this formation. Jann-Fiete Arp and Filip Kostic are the squad’s leading scorers with two goals each while similar as in Freiburg, eight guys have one goal each scored so far. Dennis Diekmeier tops the team in assists with three while passing segment belongs to defenders Gotoku Sakai and Kyriakos Papadopoulos with 362 and 326 total passes. Goalie Christian Mathenia has 179 shots against, 27 saves and three clean-sheet games recorded at the moment. Papadopoulos tops the team and the league with seven yellow cards recorded.
Nicolai Muller’s (cruciate ligament) timetable for return is set for late February next year while Lewis Holtby’s (muscle), Bjarne Thoelke’s (knee, foot) and Andreas Hirzel’s (Flu) status is unknown. Albin Ekdal and Pierre-Michel Lasogga are all listed as day to day.
SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV – Match Prediction
The first thing that comes to my mind in this duel is the big potency of it being a points-splitting duel. Hamburger has only one of these in first thirteen games and Freiburg is not strong enough to get six points in two consecutive games, making a draw my prime pick in this showdown. As a matter of fact, five of last eight duels between these two foes ended with a draw including the latest matchup between them that took place in the second part of the last season in Hamburg (2:2 draw in February this year). On the other side, we have to mention that Freiburg emerged victorious last time these two met at Schwarzwald-stadium (1:0 win in September last year). When it comes to the total goals scored, I would go with under because I don’t expect a 2:2 or 3:3 scoring fiesta to occur.
My pick: Draw (+240)
Additional Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-118)
