In this article, we have prepared for you an in-depth analysis of the Round 12 matchup that will take place on Sunday in Gelsenkirchen between hosts and their guests from Hamburg. First of two Sunday matchups in Bundesliga will take place at Veltins Arena between the Royal Blues and the Red Shorts. Schalke 04 team is coming off from a 1:0 road win over Freiburg in last round while HSV managed to secure their third victory of the season by beating Stuttgart on home soil thus regaining the fans’ support that was shaken during that eight-game winless streak.
This will probably be a very exciting matchup between old foes who always presented the “crème de la mont” of German soccer. Teams that have 13 German Championship titles combined are going in different directions at the moment but there is still time to salvage and also ruin your season so let’s take a closer look.
Schalke 04 vs. Hamburger SV
Three-Way: 1: Schalke 04 -145; X: +320 Draw; 2: Hamburger SV +565 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread -1: Schalke 04 +112; Hamburger SV -115
Total +2.5: Over +106; Under -105
SCHALKE 04
The Miners from Gelsenkirchen are currently riding a five-game undefeated streak that started after two losses by Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim in which they didn’t score a goal but conceded five. These two poor performances obviously shook up the players and they are now galloping towards the top part of the league table. From our standpoint, it looks like the Schalke 04 squad could engage the battle for one of the UEFA Champions League spots but it might still be a bit early to talk about it.
They are currently ranked at No. 4 spot with 20 points earned, same as the third-ranked Borussia Dortmund but with worse goal difference. The team is 6-2-3 so far into the season (3-2-1 at home) and they rank at No. 6 spot in the home league table with 11 points earned in front of their own crowd. Schalke 04 scores 1.27 (1.50 at home) and concedes 0.91 (1.00 at home) goals per game (14-10 goal difference) and 73% of their duels had under 2.5 goals in total. The fact that only one of 11 games had over 3.5 goals in total proves that the Miners are very low-scoring and low-conceding team. Still, they’ve managed to score at least one goal in both halves in every second home game while both teams scored in 36% of their overall matches. Most common score at home is a 1:1 draw and 2:0 win (both occurred twice).
Italian coach Domenico Tedesco prefers the 3-5-2 scheme with Stambouli, Naldo, and Kehrer as centre-backs and Caliguri and Oczipka operating as defensive midfielders down the flanks. McKennie, Meyer, and Konoplyanka usually start as central midfielders while Di Santo and Burgstaller operate up front as centre-forwards. Leon Goretzka tops the team in scoring with four goals while Nabil Bentaleb and Guido Burgstaller have three each in their accounts. Along with Amine Harit, Burgstaller is also the team’s leading assister with two while passing segment belongs to defenders Naldo and Thilo Kehrer with 537 and 504 total passes. Goalie Ralf Fahrmann has 112 shots against (second fewest in the league), 26 saves and four clean-sheet games so far. The most undisciplined player is midfielder Benjamin Stambouli with three yellow cards recorded.
Pablo Insua (rib) is expected to be back in early January next year while Nabil Bentaleb’s (hip) and Donis Avdijaj’s (ankle) status is unknown. Leon Goretzka (muscle) and Luke Hemmerich (foot) are listed as day to day while Naldo (knee) and Matija Nastasic (ankle) are both back in training.
HAMBURGER SV
Prior to the last round, the HSV team ranked below the relegation line but they’ve managed to snap the eight-game losing skid with a 3:1 home victory over Stuttgart thus leapfrogging the Freiburg team in the league table and finally positioning themselves above the three bottom spots that lead to Zweita next season. This newly gained wave of confidence should serve the team well in order to get a positive result at a strong-standing fortress that Veltins Arena appears to be this season but having in mind the both teams’ current roster strength, I strongly believe that HSV team would sign the point-splitting before the match starts. We’ll see how it’s going to play out.
As aforementioned, the White Shorts rank at No. 15 spot with 10 points and a 3-1-7 record (1-0-4 on the road). Their goal difference is 10-18 (6-11 on the road) and 55% of their matches had over 2.5 goals in total while 40% of their road games had over 3.5 goals in total. They’ve lost their last four away duels and they’ve conceded two goals or more in each of those games. The squad managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 60% of their visits but both teams scored in only 36% of their overall showdowns. Most common score on the road is a 2:1 loss (occurred twice).
Coach Markus Gisdol usually prefers a bit weird 4-2-3-1 scheme that doesn’t have players that operate down the flanks especially up front. His usual starters in the defensive line are Santos, Mavraj, Papadopoulos and Diekmeier while Ekdal and Sakai start in front of them as defensive midfielders. Kostic, Hunt, and Ito in the middle and Arp up front are in charge of the attacking assignments. Jann-Fiete Arp is the team’s leading scorer with two goals while defender Dennis Diekmeier has team-high two assists in his account. Along with Gotoku Sakai who has 301, Diekmeier also dominates the passing segment with 284 total passes while goalkeeper Christian Mathenia has 155 shots against, 24 saves and two clean-sheet games. Greek defender Kyriakos Papadopoulos tops the team and the league in bookings with six yellow cards so far.
Nicolai Muller (cruciate ligament) will be out of action until late February 2018 while Pierre-Michael Lasogga (thigh) is listed as day to day. Albin Ekdal’s (thigh), Bobby Shou Wood’s (knee), Bjarne Thoelke’s (knee, foot) and Andreas Hirzel’s (flu) injury status is unknown. Bosnian native Sejad Salihovic (calf) is back in training.
Schalke 04 vs. Hamburger SV – Match Prediction
The Schalke 04 team was winless against the HSV last season recording one draw (1:1 at home) and one loss (2:1 on the road). Still, having the upper hand in the duels against this foe are not uncommon as they have six wins oppose to HSV’ five victories in last 14 games. Also, nine of those 14 matchups had over 2.5 goals in total but the teams’ tendencies this season don’t go in that direction. My first guess here is under 2.5 goals in total but when it comes to the final result I’m not that confident that it will meet the expectations. The Miners are the favorites but HSV might be on the role after that last round’ win and this game simply has that aura that says “landmine” so I would advise you to skip the Three-Way picks.
My pick: Under 2.5 goals (-105)
