Scrutinizing Churchill Downs trends can mean the difference between cashing a ticket in the Kentucky Derby or going home empty. The track has its idiosyncrasies, just like every other venue.
The Churchill Downs meet gets going quickly as it opens on April 29 and will close on June 30. Besides the May 6 Kentucky Derby, there will be a plethora of stakes races to choose from on that Saturday. The card will also feature the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Humana Distaff.
The $500,000 Churchill Downs for 4-year-olds and up will be staged at seven furlongs and the $300,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile for fillies and mares ages 4 and up will be offered at one mile.
One cannot get caught up betting off the Keeneland form because Churchill Downs trends are a totally different animal. Some horses just don’t care for the Churchill surface and form reversals can occur.
Biases are much more common on this dirt track because of its makeup. It is a hard surface and it can get ‘cuppy’ and that stops horses at times from running their best on this strip. A cuppy surface can happen when the track does not retain enough moisture in it to hold the sand together. This can cause the track to break away from under horses’ feet resulting in footing that some horses love and others hate.
Following runners that have a proven affinity on this track is another one of the Churchill Downs trends that is a positive thing. It is always a good way to go and the old-fashion horses-for-the-course angle can come into play.
Be careful before blinding betting on what appears to be the best horse in the race if he is starting from the rail. That post position can be troublesome. Post position can often be overlooked by the public. Sometimes, the money comes in when a horse draws a bad post because the runner’s form has been so solid. That can be a slippery slope.
A general rule of thumb to consider is to downgrade the horses from inside posts on the main track at Churchill, even in the Kentucky Derby. Since the Derby has been filled with 20 horses, the race generally seems to favor outside runners with more room to maneuver early in the race.
When looking at the Kentucky Derby this year and perusing the past performances of shippers, pay attention to the post they had in their last race. At Gulfstream, horses that draw outside posts in two-turn dirt races are always up against it. If bettors see a Churchill starter exiting a bad effort in one of those kinds of races at Gulfstream, you should remember to give that horse an excuse for the loss if it broke from anywhere outside post six.
Conversely, over the years there has been nothing wrong with the inside posts at Keeneland. If a Keeneland shipper comes to Churchill after a solid try from an outside Keeneland post, give him an upgrade since he had to overcome a poor starting point.
Granted, history doesn’t always repeat itself but it doesn’t hurt to be informed. Here are some of the Churchill Downs trends on dirt that worked on Kentucky Derby Day last year.
The first race of the day was a $100,000 optional claimer for males at a mile and the winner was Rocket Time. This racer was coming off a nose win at Oaklawn Park in late March and he sat an ideal three-hole trip as the winning favorite.
The second race was an entry-level allowance route and Call the Colonel won the war. This runner was coming off a poor effort in the Lexington Stakes, but he also got a perfect three-hole trip and paid 18-1 in the process.
The next dirt route race on the Derby card last year was won by Hesinfront. That runner was shipping on from Gulfstream Park where he caught a sloppy surface. Like the other horses just mentioned, Hesinfront used his tactical speed to never be worse than fourth before winning and paying a fat 7-1.
The Grade 3 $250,000 Pat Day Mile was run two races before the Kentucky Derby and Sharp Azteca was just that as the youngster continued the Churchill Downs trends. The son of Freud had just won a pair of races at Gulfstream Park and he sat a chilly length off the lead in the Pat Day. By the time they went a fast six furlongs, Sharp Azteca was already in front and he never looked back. He was dismissed on the tote board and those that paid attention to the Churchill Downs trends about tactical speed got paid to the tune of 13-1.
That now leaves us with the granddaddy of them all, the Kentucky Derby. Twenty horses were in the starting gate but only nineteen finished as Shagaf was pulled up when he was hopelessly beaten.
The pace of the Derby last year was hot as usual and a little phony to boot. The 25-1 shot Dancing Candy led through three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.40. His rider Mike Smith had to put on the brakes quickly as the runner stopped on a dime finishing fifteenth.
The two horses that were chasing Dancing Candy early on did very well for themselves. Gun Runner was third early and by the time they went a mile in 1:35.61, he was a head in front. The happiness didn’t last as Nyquist pounced on him like a hungry bear. After a mile Nyquist was five lengths in front of the third horse and he made the lead by two and a half lengths at the top of the stretch. He shifted inward at one point scaring his connections but held off the fast-closing Exaggerator at the wire. Exaggerator ran big considering he had only five horses beaten early in the race. Gun Runner was third and Mohaymen was fourth.
One of the Churchill Downs trends that was evident on Kentucky Derby Day last year was horses on dirt didn’t want to have to come from left field. If a runner could gain early position, his chances of winning were much greater.
Don’t be shocked if history repeats itself on May 6.
