The SDSU Aztecs travel to Fort Worth to square-off against the Army Black Knights in the 2017 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The game is set to go off on Saturday, December 23rd at 3:30 p.m. EST. The 15tyh addition of the Armed Forces Bowl can be seen on ESPN and on the WatchESPN app. As of now, the SDSU Aztecs are -6.5 point favorites and the contest’s total sits at 46.
The San Diego State Aztecs fell just short of the Mountain West Championship when they fell in defeat to Boise State and Fresno State in consecutive losses in the middle of their schedule. Those setbacks were the Aztecs’ only two losses on the year. Now, they will take their 10-2 record into the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl after reeling off four-straight wins.
The Army Black Knights continued their dream season when they toppled the Navy Midshipmen to capture the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The triumph was Army’s ninth win of the year and they now sit at 9-3 overall. The Black Knights have won seven of their last eight contests and sport the country’s number one rushing offense. If your a fan of the passing game, this match-up will not be for you. But with the Aztec’s Rashard Penny and Army’s Ahmad Bradshaw on the gridiron, there should be plenty of handoffs for fans to enjoy.
SDSU Aztecs (10-2)
The San Diego State Aztecs come into Amon Carter Stadium with another good chance to leave victorious in a bowl game. A win in the Lockheed Martin Armed forces Bowl would be their third consecutive post-season win. They enter this contest on the heels of a four-game winning streak. The last was a solid 35-10 thrashing of the New Mexico Lobos in their regular-season finale.
The Aztecs are a run-first team so quarterback Christian Chapman isn’t asked to do too much. Instead, head coach Rocky Long expects him to make good decisions on third downs and not turn the football over. Chapman has done a pretty good job at doing just that in 2017. Overall, he has completed 140 passes for 1,848 yards with 13 touchdowns and only three picks on the year.
Tailback Rashard Penny is one of the best running backs in the nation. The senior has been explosive, rushing the football for 2,027 yards on a mammoth 275 carries. He also averages 7.4 yards per attempt and has found the end zone 19 times. Teammate Juwan Washington does well when Penny needs a break. So far, he has accumulated another 715 yards on the ground with seven more scores. SDSU ranks 12th in the country, rushing for 252 yards a game.
Because of the lack of production in the passing game, wide receiver Micah Holder is the only real threat to do damage through the air. The senior has brought in 43 balls for just over 600 yards with only two touchdowns. No other pass catcher has even recorded 20 catches and tight end Kahale Warring leads the team with three touchdown grabs.
Defensively, the Aztecs have been one of the best schools in the FBS over the last five years. This year was no different. The unit boasts the nation’s eighth-ranked rushing defense, allowing only 110 yards a game. They also don’t concede many points, surrendering 18 a contest to opposing programs. Overall, the squad only gives way to 304 yards a game (11th).
Army Black Knights (9-3)
Even though Army fell in defeat to the Mean Green a few weeks ago, quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw might have had his best game under center this season. The senior quarterback rarely passes the football but toted the rock 27 times for 244 yards and two trips to pay-dirt. Overall, Bradshaw has carried the ball 210 times for 1,566 yards and has 12 touchdowns.
Tailback Darnell Woolfolk was also outstanding in the loss to North Texas. The powerful runner scampered for 120 yards on 18 carries with two scores of his own. The junior running back has collected 725 rushing yards in nine games played on the season and is averaging 5.3 yards a carry. He also has reached the back of the end zone 12 times in 2017.
I would mention some pass catchers in this section but the Black Knights rely solely on running the ball to generate offense. As a result, they lead the nation with an average of 355 rushing yards per game. Army also features running backs Kell Walker and Andy Davidson. Together, they have recorded over 550 rushing yards on the season with another 10 scores combined.
The Black Knights usually stout defense struggled in the loss to the Mean Green. In fact, they surrendered a season-high 52 points and 489 total yards. Even so, the unit has been a strong defensive squad for the majority of the year. Especially against the run which is a good sign heading into this match-up against the Aztecs. In all, the front seven is only allowing 167 yards a game which is good for 69th in the country.
Prediction
The Sin City odds makers have placed the Aztecs as a -6 point favorite when they came out with this line before the Army/Navy game. After a Black Knights victory, the betting public rewarded them by increasing SDSU to a -7.5 point favorite. The half a point got me interested and I think that there is some value there.
I realize that the Black Knights have not seen a talent such as running back Rashard Penny in 2017. Nevertheless, they are decent against the run and the Aztecs are completely one-dimensional. Also, Army has generally played very opponent tough this season. The Ohio State Buckeyes were the only team that beat them by more than a touchdown this year. They fell 38-7 in that game in the Horseshoe. Take the Black Knights to cover that half point and find a way to keep this contest close.
Also, I think there is some value in this game’s over/under. With two defenses that have been good at stopping the run and both teams that struggle to pass, I like the under 49.5. There should be plenty of yardage on the ground in this bowl game but that should contribute to keeping the clock moving. SDSU wins their fourth-straight bowl game but has a fight on their hands doing it. The Aztecs 27-20 over Army in the Lockheed Martin Armed forces Bowl. @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Aztecs last 5 Bowl games.
The Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
The Under is 16-5 in the Black Knights last 21 neutral site games.
