Roenis Elias (3-4, 3.67 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners (30-37) go up against Lance McCullers (3-1, 2.00 ERA) and the Houston Astros (40-28) in the first of a three-game division series at Safeco Field. The Astros enter this series on a five-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 19 and will air on ROOT-SW and ROOT-NW.
In his most recent outing, Elias pitched 3.1 innings, giving up seven runs (one unearned), striking out two and walking four in a 13-0 loss to the Astros. Nelson Cruz (.309, 34 Rs, 18 HRs, 41 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his career against the Mariners, McCullers is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and four strikeouts. George Springer (.277, 35 Rs, 10 HRs, 24 RBIs, 13 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Astros, going 2 for 5 yesterday.
Seattle is favored by a slight -108 margin in its matchup against Houston. The matchup currently has a seven-run Over/Under (O/U). The Mariners are 19-22 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,027. They have an SU record of 14-14 against teams in their division and a 10-9 record when they were the favorite in those games. Whenever an AL West opponent shows up on the calendar, the Mariners seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.1 runs per game, but allow 4.7 against teams from their own division.
Moving on to the away team, the Astros come into this game with a solid win percentage of .600 when playing as the underdog (21-14) and an overall money line of +1,025. Against divisional rivals, they are 20-12 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 14-5 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.8 runs per game, above their 4.5 season average. Houston is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 221 extra base hits. The Astros have racked up 56 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league. The Astros are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.53 ERA this season. They have a WHIP of 1.17, best in the MLB.
The Astros had the upper hand against the Mariners in their previous 10 games this season, earning an 8-2 record. The Mariners will take on a right-hander (McCullers) in this game and have a 24-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Elias will take the mound against the Astros, who have a 14-14 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Under
Notes
Seattle has won 56% (10-8) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 59% (16-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mariners are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Astros have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Astros are 9-19. The Mariners have a 10-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Houston has hit 97 this season. Seattle ranks 11th with 68 home runs.
Seattle and Houston both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Seattle sits at 15th with 7.86 hits per game and Houston ranks 13th with 8.00.
Ranking 27th, Seattle is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.670). Houston ranks in the top five at fifth with an OPS of .738.
When the Astros allow at least one home run, they are 15-20. When the Mariners allow one or more homers, they have an 11-31 record.
