After a brief scare from the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Ottawa Senators managed to secure a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After missing the postseason last year, they have returned as the second seed in the Atlantic Division holding home-ice advantage over the Boston Bruins.
Boston ripped and roared their way into the playoff picture after the firing of Claude Julien. When it looked like their season might be teetering on the brink, the ship was righted and the team took off. The team went 18-8-1 under new head coach Bruce Cassidy down the stretch to avoid the Wild Card.
Boston is a -180 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory for each side.
Offense: advantage Bruins.
Under Cassidy’s reign, the Bruins’ offense has flourished. The Bruins averaged 3.37 goals-per-game in their final 27 games, which over 82 games would have made them the second-best offense in the NHL.
Brad Marchand finished tied for fifth in the league in scoring with 85 total points and tied for fourth in the league in goals with 39. This was far and away Marchand’s best season, besting his season-high total of 61 points and 37 goals set last year.
David Pastrnak had an explosive year of his own, netting 34 goals and registering 70 points in just his third year in the NHL.
And then there are Patrice Bergeron and David Backes, who with Brad Marchand fill out the best defensive line in hockey. Per Clear Sight Analytics, Bergeron, Backes and Marchand are the top three players in the league respectively in adjusted plus-minus (mid-to-high danger chances for minus mid-to-high danger chances against). Backes statistically had his least productive scoring season since his first full season (2007-2008: 72 games played, 31 points). But his presence on the wing has been welcomed defensively and has opened up space in the neutral zone for the scorers.
Ottawa’s offense, since that same point in early February, has dried up in a big way. The Senators averaged 2.51 goals-for per game this season, which is the lowest number of any playoff team by a considerable margin (San Jose averaged 2.67). They have been shut out three times since February 4th, and have averaged 2.21 goals-for since that date in 33 games.
Clarke MacArthur returned to the Senators after missing nearly two years with concussion issues. That’s both great for him and nerve-wracking. Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone have looked off lately too, health-wise.
Tell us what you really think, Erik. Here's @erikkarlsson65 with blunt comments about @NHL's decision to not go to @pyeongchang2018. #Sens pic.twitter.com/zerbUXzare
— CBC Ottawa (@CBCOttawa) April 4, 2017
Erik Karlsson has been banged up down the stretch, which impacts the Sens’ offensive production. He is expected to be in the lineup for Game 1.
Which brings us to…
Defense: advantage Senators.
In terms of goals-against per game, the Bruins and Senators are pretty much dead even. Boston allowed 2.55 per game, while Ottawa allowed 2.56. It’s a wash.
Where Ottawa’s advantage comes in is health. Erik Karlsson will be playing in the series’ opener, while the Bruins’ Torey Krug will not. Krug will miss the entire series with a lower-body injury, which is a huge blow to the Boston blueline. Krug’s 51 points ranked fifth-best on the team and first among defensemen by a longshot. Zdeno Chara’s 29 points is second.
Also potentially returning to the Ottawa lineup Wednesday night is Marc Methot, who has not seen any action since having his finger obliterated by Sidney Crosby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OrwMIJAnq8
Methot and Karlsson will take a huge load off Dion Phaneuf. If Phaneuf were left alone with Cody Ceci to deal with Marchand and Bergeron let’s just say it would not have ended well.
Brandon Carlo will also be missing from the Bruins’ lineup.
Without Krug in the lineup, Boston’s defense will be hurting. Tuukka Rask relied on his 20-plus minutes a night to shield him from facing too many chances. Rask’s goals-against average of 2.23 reflects a stingy defense, but his .915 save percentage indicts the quality of chances allowed. With Krug out, he will be losing a key cog in front of him.
But it also hurts because of his impact on…
Special teams: advantage Boston.
Torey Krug led the Bruins with 25 powerplay points. However, there are other players more than capable on the man advantage. David Pastrnak leads with 10 goals, and both he and Marchand have 24 points. Patrice Bergeron acts as the bumper in the high slot, utilizing his right-handedness to keep penalty killers on their toes. He is able to either fake shots or passes with greater ease considering the angle from which passes usually flow through the offense.
One of the more deceptively useful players on the man advantage is Ryan Spooner, owner of 18 powerplay points. He is a third liner, a serviceable two-way depth man, but his presence on a cohesive unit on the powerplay is incredibly useful.
The Bruins’ powerplay is seventh-best in the NHL. Ottawa’s is 23rd.
Boston’s penalty kill is the best in the league- shocker, a team with Patrice Bergeron leads the league in a defensive category. Ottawa’s is 22nd.
No contest.
Goaltending: advantage Bruins.
Craig Anderson will be in net for the Ottawa Senators. Anderson has been incredibly good down the stretch since returning from being with his wife. He has won 25 of 40 starts this season with a 2.28 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage.
Every now and then, Anderson can steal the show. He turned in five shutouts this season. In four playoff starts in 2015, he allowed just four goals, but still lost two games. In the 2011-2012 playoffs, he gave the New York Rangers all they could handle in a seven game series.
But for as good as he can be, the simple fact remains that he has only made it past the first round once in his career.
Tuukka Rask has a career goals-against average of 2.11 in the postseason with a .930 save percentage. He has not won the Cup yet (Tim Thomas was the starter when the Bruins won in 2011), but he absolutely can.
If Anderson struggles, Mike Condon could come in to relieve him. I have never believed in a 1-1A system in the postseason. The more goaltenders a team has, the few goaltenders a team really has.
I give the edge to the Bruins.
Bold Predictions:
1) Craig Anderson will start every game and stand on his head, and will win the Masterton when all is said and done.
2) This series will have the most shutouts.
3) Someone other than Brad Marchand will face supplementary discipline.
Prediction: Bruins in 5.
