Our featured Serie A match of the weekend kicks off on Saturday in Genoa with Sampdoria hosting AC Milan. Both clubs are in the top seven of the table, with Sampdoria still only having lost 1 match on the campaign. AC Milan has struggled lately with two draws and a loss in their last three outings.
Genoa heads to Nereo Rocco on the island to take Cagliari, and no one has been hotter than Genoa lately. Since losing the Genoa derby with Sampdoria, they have reeled off four wins and a draw in their last five matches.
Lazio continued its torrid pace of scoring with four more goals last weekend, and lead all of Serie A with 20 goals on the campaign. They will head to Empoli to look to continue their ascent up the table.
There’s two Serie A matches on Saturday, and the bulk of the slate on Sunday with eight matches being played.
AC Milan vs Sampdoria3-Way 1×2 Lines: Milan +165 ; Sampdoria +185 ; Draw +220 Spread: Milan Pk -120 ; Sampdoria Pk +100 Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130
Analysis and Prediction:
AC Milan has come to a screeching halt all of a sudden, with only two points in their last three matches, and the pressure is mounting on manager Filippo Inzaghi to fix it. All it takes is a little stretch of struggle in Milan for everyone to start questioning his approach. That is nothing new though, so he will be fine, but this is still not an easy place to coach when things start going in the wrong direction.
Sampdoria came off their first loss of the year to Inter and rebounded nicely, getting back to what they have done the entire campaign. With only six goals allowed this season, they are right at the top of Serie A in that category with Roma and Juventus.
This is one of those matches that could end 4 – 3 or 0 – 0 and neither would be shocking. As mentioned, Sampdoria is playing extremely well defensively, but we know Milan is about to break out at some point and get back to being that club with plenty of weapons. They put together a nice 2 – 0 win in the Berlusconi Trophy win on Wednesday and had the advantage of playing everyone on the roster to show Inzaghi the entire package they have, so we may see a bit of a shakeup in the lineup this weekend.
I’ve gotten caught taking Milan’s Overs lately, and they have not performed the way I had hoped. This will be my last battle cry for some goals, despite the defensive ability Sampdoria has shown. They too can score, as they have managed 12 goals on the campaign coming off a three-goal performance. One more try. Over 2.5 at +110.[divider]
Atalanta vs Sassuolo
3-Way: 1: Atalanta +260 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Sassuolo +120 Home
Spread: Atalanta Pk +150 ; Sassuolo Pk -175
Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145
Analysis and Prediction:
One word: Yuck! We know Sassuolo has been playing better of late, but Atalanta still has no semblance of offense this year. How can you get results if you can’t find the net? We saw it again last weekend, a 0 – 0 match with Torino, which we called for here on the site, but I see that +120 on Sassuolo at home and think it is a bargain. I jump in it, so Sassuolo 3-Way at +120 will have to do. I would like to see if we can get a better price on the Pk and -0.5 handicap though if it is available, which I do see at most European books at -115. Let’s hope DSI offers it so I can turn to that play. [divider]
Genoa vs Cagliari
3-Way: 1: Genoa +225 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Cagliari +130 Home
Spread: Genoa Pk +130 ; Cagliari Pk -150
Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105
Analysis and Prediction:
We can only say it so many times: Genoa is playing outstanding and, yes, they looked a bit suspect last weekend giving up two goals, but three points are three points however they come. Cagliari has been scoring as well this year, and found two goals vs Lazio last weekend. I have made it known I love Genoa’s GK Perrin and he will be Italy’s National keeper soon enough, but he is still on a team that makes him work harder than he should. I will take this Over 2.5 at -115 expecting some scoring. [divider]
Cesena vs Chievo Verona
3-Way: 1: Cesena +380 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Chievo -110 Home
Spread: Cesena +0.5 -110 ; Chievo -0.5 -110
Total 2: Over -120 ; Under +100
Analysis and Prediction:
Oh did I already use the word yuck?
This is one of those matches that, when we are in the off-season and missing our football in Italy, we say, “You know what? I would even take a Cesena / Chievo match right now!”
One win apiece and 12 losses and 31 goals allowed between them. Do we have to make a play here? I have mentioned I do not play draws, but what the hell, let it be 1 – 1 because picking a side is impossible and I’m certainly not playing -110 for Chievo or the -110 on the +0.5 with Cesena. +225 on the draw and I might do it for about the minimum bet allowed. [divider]
Lazio vs Empoli
3-Way: 1: Lazio +115 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Empoli +275 Home
Spread: Lazio Pk -185 ; Empoli Pk +160
Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130
Analysis and Prediction:
It is still amazing to me that Lazio has seven points with their last three away matches. I hate taking Lazio away from Olimpico because over the last couple of years they just stink away from home. The fact that they have gotten a result in their last three matches away from home makes me want to take fresh-up-from-Serie B-Empoli out of principle alone. I do see the reasonable price of +110 in this total though. No one has been able to slow Lazio down and Empoli won’t make it that tough either. Let’s just go with the Total Over 2.5 at +110 and see how Lazio does on the road. If they find points in four straight matches, than maybe I will start to think they have figured it all out. [divider]
Parma vs Juventus
3-Way: 1: Parma +1175 Away ; X: +470 Draw ; 2; Juventus -380 Home
Spread: Parma +1.5 +115 ; Juventus -1.5 -135
Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
Parma in Turin? Really? So what do you think is going to happen? Parma gets back-to-back wins and they do it vs mighty Juventus? Juventus had a party this week in Champions League, and everything fell in place with three huge points over Olympiacos. Could it be Juve can actually score sometimes? Parma will not score, so I will simply expect Juventus to be Juventus and win 2 – 0. I’ll grab the Juve -1.5 with some marginal juice. [divider]
Udinese vs Palermo
3-Way: 1: Udinese +255 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: +125 Palermo
Spread: Udinese Pk +145 ; Palermo Pk -170
Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145
Analysis and Prediction:
Take a peek of the bottom of the table when you check on how teams are doing away from home. Now look who has scored a single goal when they leave home. You guessed it. Udinese leaves home and has no clue what to do.
Palermo cleaned house in Serie B last year to get back to top flight and have pretty much held their own. They have one loss here at Renzo Barbera and, until the second one happens, I can handle the 3-Way line of +125 on Palermo to find all three points since Udinese absolutely stinks on the road. [divider]
Napoli vs Fiorentina
3-Way: 1: Napoli +190 Away ; X: +220 Draw ; 2: Fiorentina +160 Home
Spread: Napoli Pk -105 ; Fiorentina Pk -115
Total 2.5: Over +105 ; Under -125
Analysis and Prediction:
When you figure out who Fiorentina is, give me a call! This team is like Jekyll and Hyde, and it isn’t even a home and away thing. They just look like two different teams from week to week. There will be dozens of sites out there that will say they have fixed information on this match. Those scam sites always do that when Italian matches have these type of lines on them. Do not buy into.
Anyway, because Fiorentina looked so bad last time out, that means they will look like the best club in Europe this week. I will take the Pk on Fiorentina at a decent -115. [divider]
Torino vs Roma
3-Way: 1: Torino +675 Away ; X: +320 Draw ; 2: Roma -200 Home
Spread: Torino +1 -105 ; Roma -1 -115
Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105
Analysis and Prediction:
Francesco Totti once again sat out of Champions League, and it really makes me sick being the Roma fan that I am. Italian clubs are infamous for accepting European let downs, and we now know that Roma has no concern for Europe. You may say that they put the best team they could put on the pitch for the Bayern match, but that is just a load of it.
I am taking this Under 2.5 at -115. We have mentioned it plenty that Torino could not score on an empty pitch, and Roma clamps it down at home like no one else. Take a peek at this 1st Half Under 1 as well. Let it be 1 – 0 at Halftime. Won’t bother me a bit.[divider]
Hellas Verona vs Inter Milan
3-Way: 1: Verona +265 Away ; X: +330 Draw ; 2: Milan -205 Home
Spread: Verona +1 +105 ; Milan -1 -125
Total 2.5: Over -145 ; Under +125
Analysis and Prediction:
Inter Milan beats Sampdoria, and then loses to Parma? Now they want someone to pay -200 for them at home?
We know Luca Toni is going to dive at least three times in the box trying to get a call, and we also know that it will work once. It is amazing that he gets away with it week after week. I will take the +1 on Verona at +105. Inter lost to Parma last weekend, give me a break!
