Kawhi Leonard’s new team has an over/under win total of 47.5, which does not account for the fact that he will not be a happy camper in The North, has an history of locking himself in his room in Toronto, and still yearns to play in a massive market in order to facilitate his uncle’s business growth plan.
So consider all of those facts and/or eventualities as you decide whether or not the Raptors will finish over or under 47.5 wins in the 2018-19 NBA season.
And if you think that one is just too risky, take a broader look around.
Folks have been looking all around the Internet all summer for news on where Kawhi Leonard might land, and this site has reported on various possibilities that were or will be in play. We told you back on June 17 that Gregg Popovich would not trade the disgrunted superstar to any team in the West, and that is precisely what happened.
We also told you that the New York Knicks as his ultimate landing zone a little less than a year from now is not out of the question, and word came out today that the Brooklyn Nets could be in play, too. Like we reported, he likes New York.
But also keep in mind that while Los Angeles is Kawhi Leonard’s preferred destination, and the frostbite that be figures to be suffering from in Toronto by mid-February could be a complicating factor. And that might be the time when Pat Riley and the Miami Heat get word to Uncle Dennis that South Beach and Biscayne Bay might be a good place to spent the rest of next season … at a minimum. And if they acquired him, they could re-sign Leonard to a five-year deal that would be about $30 million less that what he could have gotten on a supermax with the Spurs.
Given that Florida has no income tax, the financial benefit of playing there instead of California (which has a special millionaires’ tax) would be significant.
So while DeMar DeRozan stews and Danny Green packs up his belongings and Spurs Nation gets ready to see just how impactful the fourth player in the deal, Jakob Poeltl, will end up becoming, it is time for a look at the over/under win totals that are out a bit early this summer at an offshore site in Europe.
But first, there is some new action on Kawhi Leonard: Will he or won’t he be traded in February. “Yes” is -500, and “No” is +325. You can make that wager by clicking here (Use promo code BBALL1000 for a 100 percent matching bonus up to $1,000. You also get a $25 free play.)
After a long, hard look at the win totals, I see two best bets: Indiana (over 42.5 wins) and Atlanta (under 26.5). I have already opined about how much I like the Pacers, whose only significant loss in the offseason was Lance Stephenson, and I cannot see the Hawks with a win total even remotely approaching the high teens.
Here are the other over/under win totals, my brief comments and picks:
Golden State Warriors (68.5): Probably a little high. They’ve won three of the past four NBA titles, they added DeMarcus Cousins, and they inked Steve Kerr to a contract extension. But they are coming off a 58-win season, and the cruise control factor will be in play. PICK: UNDER
Boston Celtics (57.5): Maybe a little low. Maybe. They have the third-lowest odds of all 30 NBA teams to win the title, they will have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back on a roster that went deeper than anyone expected in last season’s playoffs, and they had 55 Ws last season. PICK: OVER
Philadelphia 76ers (56.5): I covered them for NJ.com at the tail end of the season when they looked like they would go all the way to the NBA Finals with ease, but then they ran into a Celtics team that they could not match up with, Ben Simmons had a series of late-game brain farts in terms of remembering plays coming out of timeouts, and Joel Embiid turned Instagram Idiot. They had 52 Ws last year. PICK: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Houston Rockets (56.5): If not for Chris Paul’s ankle injury and James Harden’s “I need to do this all by myself” personality disorder in Games 6 and 7 vs. Golden State, they might have knocked the Warriors out. Losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will hurt more than many realize. Won 65 last year. PICK: OVER
Los Angeles Lakers (52.5): You never want to bet against LeBron James. And what this team looks like now vs. what it will look like on March 1, 2019, are two very different things. Pick: OVER
Toronto Raptors (47.5): Just traded their best player, who was sold on staying in Toronto long term, for a guy who doesn’t want to be there and another guy who isn’t half the player he once was. Just my opinion, but should have kept the old crew together now that nemesis LeBron James has moved West. Pick: UNDER.
Washington Wizards (47.5): Have not broken up their core … yet. And made two nice pickups in Austin Rivers and Dwight Howard. Won 43 last year. Always relevant; never great. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
San Antonio Spurs (45.5): Never bet against Pop. Pick: OVER.
Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5): If you would have given me an over/under on whether Sam Presti and Billy Donovan would make it to July 19, I would have taken the under. That is why I usually make $1 bets. Pick: OVER
Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5): Can we just post an over/under on the date they trade Andrew Wiggins? Or how many times Berman of the Post will namedrop him into a Knicks column? Pick: OVER
Utah Jazz (44.5): They are +7000 to win the title, and while I do not think they will win the title, they are a damn good team. Memo to the NBA: Can Joe Ingles please get a spot in the 3-point shootout this season? He has sort of been conspicuously absent from that event the past couple of years. Pick: OVER.
Portland Trail Blazers (43.5): Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Damian Lillard had a bunch of heavy hitters in his ear toward the end of June when LeBron James was “deciding” where he would play. They are not good enough to win the West, and some sort of rebuild is coming … again. Pick: UNDER
Denver Nuggets (43.5): They were trying to get Kawhi, and they could not. Still trying to shake things up, so there are too many variables to make an informed wager. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Orleans Pelicans (43.5): Boogie is gone. Rondo is gone. Anthony Davis is still there, and he likes it … despite the salivations of various executives around the league, the most prominent of whom is named Danny Ainge. Pick: UNDER
Miami Heat (43.5): The Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson salary situations are extraordinary. Not easy to dump money anymore, but not impossible. Jury still out on what their roster will look like, but this is a tough team that runs their coach’s stuff perfectly. Pick: OVER
Milwaukee Bucks (42.5): Do you believe me now about Jabari Parker, my Cheesehead brethren? He and Giannis may have been friends on a personal level, but J was too selfish on the court. Same with Eric Bledsoe. Pick: OVER.
Indiana Pacers (41.5) – I love their team. They are a tremendous spec bet at +12000 to win it all. Pick: OVER.
New York Knicks (39.5) – They will not win 40 games. They have about as much chance of winning 40 games as Knicks fans do of playing forgive and forget with Jim Dolan (although it happened with George Steinbrenner). Pick: UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers (35.5) – They will not be as good as they were the past four seasons. Pick: UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers (35.5) – They will be in play for Kawhi Leonard on some level for the next 11 1/2 months. There is no other good news. Pick: UNDER
Charlotte Hornets (35.5) – Will Kemba Walker stay or will Kemba Walker go? Try to find another relevant question about them that does not include Tony Parker or Michael Jordan. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit Pistons (35.5) – Had one of the best drafts that no one noticed. If they can find a taker for Reggie Jackson, they will be one step closer to being on the cusp of great. Pick: OVER.
Phoenix Suns (34.5) – They have two very, very good players now, maybe three. If it is the latter, that is three times as many as they had last season. Tough conference, though. Pick: UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks (30.5) – Doubt them at your own risk. They are holding cap space for a reason. Pick: OVER
Orlando Magic (28.5) – They will not be a good team. If someone can light a fire under Nik Vucevic, that could change. Pick: UNDER
Chicago Bulls (28.5) – Relevancy shall continue to elude them. Won 27 a year ago. Will be near that number again. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
Memphis Grizzlies (27.5) – At a certain point, Marc Gasol has to be flipped in a rebuild. Makes this too difficult of a wager. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
Sacramento Kings (27.5) – Vlade is still shopping. Peja has been having a nice vacation. Vivek Ranadive and the Reinsdorf family were not happy with each other during the Zach LaVine thing. Pick: UNDER.
Atlanta Hawks (26.5) – Michael Dukakis rides in them. Pick: UNDER.
Brooklyn Nets (25.5) – They will be better than the Hawks. Pick: TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
