The No. 12-ranked SMU Mustangs (19-2) head to South Florida to take on the Bulls (5-19) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. Action starts at 2:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 7 and can be seen on CCS.
The Bulls are hoping to rebound after their 88-57 loss to Cincinnati on Thursday. Bo Zeigler was a top performer for the Bulls, contributing 10 points, three rebounds, and two assists. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their bitter 71-68 loss at the hands of Houston on Monday. Nic Moore had a team-high 16 points.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the nation’s slowest-paced teams square off. South Florida ranks 303rd in possessions per game (66.5), while SMU is 324th (65.7).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mustangs won the first game 72-58. Chris Perry had a standout performance with 12 points, six rebounds, four assists, and two steals in the loss.
The Bulls come into this game 5-19 Straight Up (SU) and 12-11 Against The Spread (ATS). South Florida has averaged 74.4 points per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 63.2. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, an area where the Bulls are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.5 blocks per game, 19th in Division I.
As for their opponent, the Mustangs have records of 7-10 ATS and 19-2 SU. Offensively, they average 79.4 points per game, which is good for 36th in the country. SMU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in Division I. The Mustangs average 13.3 offensive rebounds per game, making them the 31st-best team in the country for that category. The Mustangs are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 27th in Division I at 1.43. The SMU defense as a whole has been firing on all cylinders so far, ranking 20th in Division I with only 63.9 points allowed per game. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Mustangs, who are the 32nd-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .396.
The Mustangs’ win over South Florida in their last clash moved their SU record in the most recent matchups against South Florida to 4-3. On the other hand, with a 5-2 record, South Florida has the advantage ATS. SMU held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five game, while South Florida wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU
Notes
South Florida averages 63.2 points per game, placing the team just 249th in the nation. SMU ranks 20th in points allowed, giving up 63.9 points per game.
South Florida scores just 64.5 points per home game (ranked 248th). SMU ranks 23rd in points allowed on the road, giving up 66.9 points.
In its last game, South Florida lost by a margin of 31 points. SMU is 6-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. South Florida has a 0-4 record in blowouts.
The SMU Mustangs have a defensive rating of 96.4 (ranked 43rd), while the South Florida Bulls have an offensive rating of 94.9 (ranked 332nd).
The South Florida Bulls average 66.5 possessions per game and .949 points per possession, while the SMU Mustangs earn fewer possessions (65.7) but more points per possession (1.208).
The SMU Mustangs have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking 17th in the country with an eFG% of 55.6%. When their opponents record a similar or higher eFG%, the South Florida Bulls are winless with a 0-3 record.
South Florida attempts an average of 14.0 three pointers per game and SMU attempts 15.0 on average. When the teams attempt at least 20 three pointers, the South Florida Bulls are winless (0-4) while the SMU Mustangs are undefeated (4-0).
SMU ranks 27th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.43. South Florida is ranked lower at 347th with an A/TO of .65.
South Florida ranks 50th in rebounds per game with 39.5 and SMU ranks 38th with 40.1 rebounds per game.
South Florida ranks 94th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, SMU ranks 31st.
On average, South Florida forces a turnover rate of 13.5%. When SMU turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 16-2 record.
