It’s some AAC Conference action when the MSU Mustangs travel to TDECU Stadium to dance with the Houston Cougars for some evening college football on the CBS Sports Network. The contest is scheduled to start on Saturday, October 7th at 7:00 p.m. EST. As of now, Sin City has the Cougars as a -6.5 point favorite and the game’s total sits at 62 points.
The SMU Mustangs ride into this battle on the heels of their 49-28 drubbing of the Cincinnati Bearcats. The home win placed the Mustangs at 4-1 on the season. In that game, SMU used their potent offense to rack up plenty of points to outscore the Bearcats last Saturday. The Mustangs offense has been a nice surprise but will face a Houston defense that is stingy about letting teams put points on the board.
The Houston Cougars went on the road and handed the Temple Owls a 20-13 home defeat. The defense was the key for the Cougars as they held the Owls to no first-half points and only 323 yards of total offense. The victory was a nice bounce-back win after falling at home to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
SMU Mustangs (4-1)
The Smu Mustangs were just 6-7 last year, but that was a big improvement over the 2-10 outing in 2015. furthermore, the Mustangs were only 1-11 the year before that. Well, this year’s offense is far better than those two. Obviously, it has been that facet of the game that has led them to a 4-1 start.
Last week, they faced a horrible Huskies’ defense and racked up just under 500 total yards of offense. Quarterback Ben Hicks had a great game hitting 27 of his 37 passes for 280 yards and four scores. More importantly, Hicks didn’t serve up any interceptions to Connecticut’s secondary. On the year, he has hit just 54 percent of his throws for 1275 yards with 14 touchdowns and only three picks.
Ben Hicks favorite target this season has been wide receiver, Trey Quinn. Quinn has been exceptional, catching 37 passes for 431 yards and four trips to the end zone. against the Huskies, he amassed 116 yards on an outstanding 15 catches and two more scores. Also having a solid performance was fellow wideout, Courtland Sutton. Sutton caught seven passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
You might think that the SMU Mustangs are a pass first team with the numbers presented above. That is just not the case as their offense has actually run the football more than they have thrown it. Three different tailbacks share the workload out of the backfield.
All three backs have seen plenty of touches, totaling over 160 carries for well over 900 yards and 10 scores. Running back Xavier Jones leads this unit with 368 yards rushing on 63 carries. Backfield mate Ke’Mon Freeman also has 63 carries for 311 yards and leads the team with six rushing touchdowns.
On defense, SMU has not been good at all as they come in ranked 103rd in total yards allowed (438) and 128th against the pass (325). Fortunately, their front seven is steady, holding opposing teams to only 106 yards on the ground (22nd). The big concern is all these figures translate into schools scoring 30 points per game against them.
Houston Cougars (3-1)
Normally, when you think of the Houston Cougars, you think of the offense they put out on the field. In 2017, it has been the defense that has been the strength of this club. Currently, the Cougars are 14th in the nation allowing only 14.8 points per game. In fact, they have allowed 23.5 ppg or less in each of their last four seasons. Even though they hold teams to low scoring figures, their front seven continues to struggle. As of now, they rank 74th in the country allowing 155 points per contest.
Starting quarterback Kyle Allen got shown the bench for the Cougars most recent match-up against Temple. He has been way too inconsistent and was finally relieved of duty. Backup signal-caller Kyle Postma got the start and he hit 25 of 36 passes for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Also, the dual-threat athlete rushed for 81 yards and kept the Houston defense balanced. With that performance, I fully expect that Postma will get the start against SMU.
Running the football has been a bit of a challenge for the Houston Cougars this year. Normally, there are some solid running backs that compliment their passing attack. Unfortunately, that has not been the case this season. Duke Catalon and Dillon Birden have a combined 72 carries for only 327 yards and three scores. I don’t expect that those numbers will see much of an improvement against a tough Mustangs front seven.
Two receivers have done most of the heavy lifting when the Cougars move the ball through the air. Linnell Bonner has 32 catches for 300 yards and three trips to pay-dirt. On the other side, Steven Dunbar has 24 grabs for 290 yards but has yet to find a way to record a touchdown.
Prediction
In almost any other of the 10 previous seasons, there would be little doubt about taking the Houston Cougars to easily cover a-6.5 point line against the SMU Mustangs. Evidently, that is not the case this season as the Mustangs are proving that they are a force to be reckoned with in 2017.
I believe that this line is sitting where it is at because the oddsmakers in Las Vegas want to see the Mustangs beat a quality defensive team on the road before giving them the respect they deserve.
Well, I don’t need to have SMU and that powerful offense prove that to me. Look, I get that they have beat up on some lesser schools and that they don’t have any semblance of a secondary. Even still, I like them to score plenty enough points to cover this +6.5 point spread.
Take the Mustangs to keep their momentum going and cover this spread with ease. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they walk into Houston and outright beat the Cougars this weekend. By the way, an outright victory is priced in at a tasty +240. Just a thought. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Mustangs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
The Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.
The Over is 9-4 in the Mustangs last 13 conference games.
The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference games.
The Cougars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Under is 5-0 in the Cougars last five games overall.
