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South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: NCAA Football Free Pick

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Two schools that prefer to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Steve Campbell and the South Alabama Jaguars (+17) are set to face off against their in-conference counterpart Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-17) at Cajun Field. The game is scheduled to get going at 5:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 has the TV rights.

South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Preview

This Saturday SBC game shows the Jaguars as a big underdogs and they’re currently getting 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to wager $1,400 to win $100 back on the Ragin’ Cajuns (-1400). The Jaguars are getting +780 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 62.5 points, and if one side catches a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.

The Jaguars are 3-6-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.0 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 7-3. The Ragin’ Cajuns have gained 2.8 units this season. The team is 7-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4.

The Jaguars have gone 2-8 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against SBC opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-5 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.

The Jaguars hope to get back on track after a 38-10 loss to Louisiana-Monroe last week. The passing game was on point as Cole Garvin completed 13 passes for just 95 yards. Tra Minter (61 rushing yards on 12 attempts) led the ground attack while Jordan McCray (three receptions, 45 yards, one TD) and Kawaan Baker (three catches, 37 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Louisiana just earned a 36-22 win over Georgia State. Andre Nunez completed 14-of-19 passes for 141 yards and one touchdown. Elijah Mitchell (136 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and Raymond Calais (186 yards on 13 carries, three TDs) handled the running game while Ja’Marcus Bradley (three receptions, 38 yards) and Trey Ragas (three catches, 23 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

South Alabama has run the ball on 57.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana has an overall rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Jaguars have produced 128 rush yards/game (including 116 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns are totaling 231 rushing yards per game (231 in conference) and have 25 total rush TDs.

The Jags offensive scheme has logged 198 yards/contest through the air overall (198 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Ragin’ Cajuns have put up 221 pass yards per contest (203.3 in the SBC) and have 19 total pass scores.

Defensively, South Alabama has allowed 213 rush yards and 246 pass yards per game. The Louisiana defense has allowed 236.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 213.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Jags have given up an ANY/A of 8.17 to opposing QBs, while the Ragin’ Cajuns are allowing an ANY/A of 8.37.

Offensively, Garvin is up to 159 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 23-of-41 attempts with one scores through the air and two interceptions. Garvin’s got a 0.94 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.59 over the last two outings.

Andre Nunez has completed 130-of-191 passes for 1,624 yards, 14 TDs and six INTs for Louisiana. His ANY/A stands at 7.72 for the season and 3.53 over his past two games.

These two schools met last year with the final outcome being a 19-14 victory for Louisiana.

RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions 

Free Pick: South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

SU Winner – Louisiana, ATS Winner – Louisiana, O/U – Under

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Notes

Team Betting Notes

Louisiana has lost three fumbles this season while South Alabama has let nine get away.

The Louisiana defense has recorded 18 sacks on the year while South Alabama has 16.

South Alabama has produced 3.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.4 over its last two.

Louisiana has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.1 over its last two.

In its last three contests, Louisiana is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for South Alabama’s last game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 38-10 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.

Over its last three matchups, South Alabama is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Louisiana’s last game was set at 68. The under cashed in that 36-22 victory over Georgia State.

South Alabama has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 38-point victory over Alabama State on October 13th representing the only win over that span.

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Written by GMS Previews

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