The South Alabama Jaguars (13-16) close out the regular season on the road at College Park Center when they face off with the UT Arlington Mavericks (20-9). The game gets underway at 8:15 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 3.
The Mavericks beat Texas State 75-69 on Tuesday. Kaelon Wilson was the team’s high scorer with 13 points on 4-for-4 shooting. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are coming off an 83-70 win against Louisiana-Lafayette on Saturday. Ken Williams led the team in scoring by accounting for 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
The inefficient offense of the Jaguars (303rd in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 98.0) will look to break through against the stingy defense of the Mavericks (16th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 95.0). The matchup on that end of the court seems to benefit UT Arlington.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Jaguars winning the first matchup 88-85. Georgi Boyanov put up 24 points and 11 rebounds.
The Mavericks are attempting to build on their records of 20-9 Straight Up (SU) and 15-12 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games. The Mavericks come into the game with the 37th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 79.4 points per game. Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for UT Arlington in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 14.7 offensive boards per game. The Mavericks have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking 30th in the country with a .401 opponent field-goal percentage.
Over on the other bench, the Jaguars have records of 14-13 ATS and 13-16 SU. South Alabama has been particularly bad ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 3-7. Offensively, the Jaguars have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 69.4 points per game by averaging 75.3 during that stretch. South Alabama’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents shooting only .319 from the three.
The Jaguars’ win over UT Arlington in their last clash bumped their SU record over their most recent meetings to 4-2. Furthermore, South Alabama leads the matchup ATS with a record of 3-2. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, South Alabama held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. UT Arlington never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tx-Ar, ATS Winner – Tx-Ar
Notes
UT Arlington averages 79.4 points per game (ranked 37th). South Alabama, on the other hand, allows 72.9 points per game (ranked 171st).
South Alabama scores just 65.9 points per away game (ranked 204th). UT Arlington ranks 51st in points allowed at home, giving up 63.9 points.
On average, UT Arlington has 73.7 possessions per game and scores 1.078 points on each possession. South Alabama has both fewer possessions (70.8) and scores fewer points during those possessions (.980).
UT Arlington has an average effective field goal percentage of 49.0%. South Alabama is an abysmal 2-10 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Ranked 19th in the nation, UT Arlington has an average of 16.8 assists per game. South Alabama ranks lower at 334th with 10.6.
UT Arlington, the second-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 43.6 rebounds per game. South Alabama ranks 89th with 37.9.
The South Alabama Jaguars rank 64th in offensive rebounds, and the UT Arlington Mavericks rank 16th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, UT Arlington forces a turnover rate of 21.0%. When South Alabama turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 7-4 record.
