The Sun Belt Conference is on display when the South Alabama Jaguars travel to Atlanta to play the Georgia State Panthers on Thursday evening. The match-up is scheduled to get underway on Thursday, October 26th at 7:30 p.m. EST. The game can be seen on the ESPNU Network for your viewing entertainment. Currently, the Jaguars are a slight -2.5 point favorite and the over/under is at 49.
The South Alabama Jaguars head into this game on the heels of a 33-23 victory over in-conference rivals Louisiana Monroe. Now, South Alabama is 2-1 in league play after winning just one game in their first five matches. Also, they have picked up some momentum winning their last two and hope that this will be three in a row.
The Georgia State Panthers head into this game after suffering a 34-10 home loss at the hands of the Troy Trojans. After the loss, the Panthers are also 2-1 in Sun Belt Conference play. The setback ended a three-game winning streak in which Georgia State took advantage of the weaker teams in the division.
In Alabama last season, the Jaguars beat the Georgia State Panthers in a 13-10 grudge-match. After that battle, South Alabama took a 3-1 lead in the series between the two schools.
South Alabama Jaguars (3-4)
The Jaguars may sit at 3-4 on the year, but they are now 2-1 in conference play after dispatching of the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks last weekend. The victory was after a nice win 19-8 over Troy in their annual Battle of the Belt. South Alabama displayed some good offense in the win over the Warhawks as they racked up 549 yards of offense. Furthermore, the unit was balanced as they ran for 232 yards and threw for 317 more.
Quarterback Dallas Davis had a successful outing against the Warhawks. In that game, he hit 20 of 33 passes for 317 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Louisiana Monroe just couldn’t find a way to stop him for most of the contest. For the year, Davis has connected on 58.3 percent of his throws for 924 yards with seven scores and three picks.
The Warhawks couldn’t stop the ground game of South Alabama either. Leading the way via the rush was tailback Xavier Johnson. Johnson scampered for 99 yards and a trip to the back of the end zone in the game. Overall, Johnson leads the squad with 75 carries for just under 450 yards and six scores. Teammate Tra Minter also contributes, with another 264 yards on 65 touches but has yet to score a touchdown.
Two receivers are quarterback Dallas Davis’ favorite targets. Combined, they have snatched up 47 balls for over 700 yards and three scores. Sam Harris leads the team with 24 catches and 361 yards, while Jamarius Way isn’t far behind. Way has 356 yards to his credit and leads the corps with two touchdowns.
On defense, the Jaguars have struggled a bit in 2017. The unit comes into this affair ranked 85th in total yards allowed (413.3 ypg). They also struggle mightily to cover opposing wideouts, yielding 272.7 yards a game (117th) and 41st versus the run (140.6 ypg). All totaled, South Alabama surrenders 26.4 points a contest, which is 67th in the country.
Georgia State Panthers (3-3)
The Georgia State Panthers had a nice three-game run where their offense flourished against weaker clubs. Then, a much better Troy Trojan team invaded the town and the Panthers struggled to score. During their three games of winning football, the Panthers were averaging 34 points a contest.
Under center, Connor Manning has had his moments but then again, he wishes he had a few of them back. For instance, he tossed the ball for only 255 yards with a score and a touchdown against Troy. The score was the only touchdown they were able to register in the game. Either way, he has faired pretty well. In 2017, Manning has completed 125 passes for over 1,500 yards with seven scores and five picks. I’d assume he is licking his chops for this one because of the porous Panther secondary.
As mentioned above, the Panthers are a balanced offensive team. They run the ball at the same frequency they throw and when they do they turn to Glenn Smith and Taz Bateman. Together, the two have combined for almost 370 yards on 118 runs. They also have two touchdowns between them. Two other backs spell the starting duo and have accumulated another 169 yards and three scores.
There is little doubt who the number one wideout is for the Georgia State Panthers. Penny Hart leads this unit in yards, receptions, and touchdowns. Heading into this match-up, he has scraped together 47 catches for 587 yards and six scores. I fully expect him to have a good day against the Panthers this Thursday. Two more teammates compliment the talented pass-catcher with almost 30 more grabs for just under 400 yards.
Just like South Alabama, the Panthers’ defense has not really been able to contain a lot of their opponents. Their numbers are average at best, ranking 79th in the country in total yards (406) and 76th in points allowed (27). The secondary for Georgia State also has troubles covering other school’s receivers. The back half sits 108th in the FBS, surrendering 262 yards a game.
Prediction
Line setters have the Jaguars as a slight 2.5 point favorite on the road for this Sun Belt Conference match-up. The reason why is because this ballgame could go either way. I have no doubt that South Alabama could find plenty of ways to exploit Panthers secondary. On the other hand, the same could be said for the Jaguars’ terrible back half. Both of these schools also struggle to move the chains via the ground so there is no advantage to that facet of the game for either squad. To me, there are just too many unknowns to lay your hard earned money on the spread here.
Instead, feel free to gamble on the matches over/under. The fact that both of these offenses should be one-dimensional and both have combined for nine unders in their 13 games says a lot. I do think that this will be tight and that scares me a bit but a 24-20 contest sounds about right to me. Take the under 49 and hopefully, we will see a version of last year’s game where the two schools combined for only 23 points. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Jaguars are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 conference games.
The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Jaguars last 6 games overall.
The Panthers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Under is 10-3 in the Panthers last 13 home games.
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
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